Why, in the 2018 survey conducted by Pagosa Housing Partners (PHP), did nearly a third of the working class respondents report that they were considering leaving Archuleta County?
Luckily for us, PHP asked that very question, as part of their survey. And some possible answers were presented to Town Council on October 2 by PHP data analyst Joanne Whitney. Ms. Whitney had also provided the Council with the raw survey data — broken out in three groupings: All Responses, Employed only, and Retirees only. (You can download the full report here.) As one might guess, the housing experiences reported by the Employees did not always match those of the Retirees.
Many of the Employed respondents were considering moving away, for example, as shown here:
Relatively fewer of the Retirees were feeling that way:
Every community has its attractions, and its deficiencies. In every city or town or suburb or backwater, a certain number of residents are dissatisfied with their living situation and are in the process of leaving, or are making plans to move away. As we mentioned yesterday in Part Three, some American communities have been shrinking over the past eight years:
Pine Bluff, Arkansas (pop. 91,000 — down from 100,000)
Johnstown, Pennsylvania (pop. 133,000 — down from 143,000)
Charleston, West Virginia (pop. 214,000 — down from 227,000)
Decatur, Illinois (pop. 106,000 — down from 111,000)
Flint, Michigan (pop. 407,000 — down from 425,000)
And so on…
Each declining city or town has its own unique set of circumstances that are causing people to leave, and not be replaced. We probably have a tendency to feel sorry for these communities, but the loss of population might make those places more pleasant for the folks left behind… in some ways.
Possibly. But maybe not.
Other communities have continued to grow their population during the past few years. We noted yesterday that the population of Archuleta County has increased by about 1 percent annually since 2010 — from about 12,084 to about 13,315. (US Census estimates.) That’s more than 1,200 new residents.
But if we go back a bit further in time, the picture changes slightly. In 2007, our population was about 12,480 — 400 more people than in 2010. So in the ten years between 2007 and 2017, our population growth rate was less than 0.7 percent per year.
You can go back further, for a more comprehensive picture. A century ago — in 1918, for example — the population of Archuleta County was about 3,950. The community had its ups and downs, over the 20th century and into the 21st, but statistically, the growth rate was about 2.4 percent per year.
But the past is in the past. And the future is in the future. Right at the moment, it would appear that maybe 30 percent of our working class households are considering leaving.
The PHP Housing Needs Survey suggested 8 reasons why each person might want to move away, if their reasons were related to housing. Here’s how the reasons broke down among the respondents:
Very few of the employed respondents were “downsizing” or “upsizing.” Only a few had transportation issues.
More than 75 percent of those who answered the question picked “Lack of housing I can afford” as their key issue (“4” or “5”). Almost as many picked “Wages” and “Job opportunities” as primary problems.
We might assume that “Job opportunities” was interpreted by the respondents as “Satisfying job opportunities,” because it appears that many Pagosa Springs employers are currently offering chances to get hired for a job. But perhaps, not the most “satisfying” jobs?
Perhaps, not jobs that can pay the rent in Archuleta County?
It is in this environment, and in these particular economic times, that the Pagosa Springs Town Council is considering its 2019 budget. The Council approved its preliminary draft budget on October 2, and has invited the public to make comments on that budget.
You can download the proposed 2019 budget here. It’s a very large file; about 192 pages.
And you can download the Town’s 10-year Pavement Maintenance Plan here, which was included as an appendix to the 2019 budget.
The Town has a total of six separate funds, each accounted for separately. For all six funds, the total expected revenue for 2019 is $8.28 million and the total expenditures for the six funds are $9.14 million. In other words, the 2019 Budget is designed to spend nearly $1 million more than the Town expects to collect in revenues. Or so it seems.
We mentioned that the Archuleta County community has grown at a rate of about 0.7 percent annually since 2007.
The Town Budget has grown at a slightly different rate. In 2007, the Town Council and staff spent about $5.24 million. In 2019, the Town expects to spend about $9.14 million. That’s a growth rate of 6.2 percent per year. About 9 times the population growth rate, over the same period. Almost double the spending amount, over a 12-year span.
During which time, a fairly serious housing crisis has developed.
Our governments may seem healthy. But does our community seem healthy?
From what I could tell, listening to the presentation of the proposed Town budget on October 2, the Town might spend $50,000 during 2019, to address our housing crisis. This is perhaps $50,000 more than our County Commissioners will be dedicating to the housing problem in 2019. (I will be reporting on the County budget tomorrow.)
$50,000 is nothing to sneeze at. But it’s only about 0.5 percent of the Town’s proposed budget. Meanwhile, the Town expects to spend $893,000 promoting Pagosa Springs as a tourism destination. That’s nearly 10 percent of the Town budget.
Maybe I’m way off base, but I believe one of the main reasons we have a housing crisis in Archuleta County is that, over the past three decades, we’ve spent millions of taxpayer dollars to develop an (unsustainable?) tourism economy.
We’ve created a community full of low-paying jobs and unaffordable housing. Do we want to change our direction? Before it’s too late?
Or maybe we just want to keep doing what we’ve always done. That’s the easy route.