This weekend, Brown University was wracked by violence, as two students were shot to death and nine others were injured. We’re still sorting out who the shooter was, as well as what weapon or weapons were used.
Even before the terrible scene in Rhode Island, states and cities have debated whether to ban assault weapons. Frustrated by national politics, which led the assault weapons ban to lapse in 2004, locals are seeking to limit such weapons in their jurisdiction.
Gun rights opponents have pushed back with court challenges. An attempt to end Washington’s Assault Weapons Ban was defeated in court. A similar challenge is underway in Connecticut. And Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer convened a task force which recommended an assault weapons ban.
My own research on the national AWB for the Cobb County Courier found this. “From 1982-94, there were an average of 1.5 mass shootings per year, and 1.6 mass shootings per year during the AWB years, 1995-2004, when the ban expired. But it was a different story when we covered the years after the ban. From 2005 to 2021, there were an average of 5.1 mass shootings per year, far more than the 1.6 from the AWB years.”
In my research methods class, Jayden Shivers tested the effectiveness of state-level AWB bans, many passed after the national laws lapsed, or in response to tragedies like the one at Sandy Hook.
Here is what he found.
When looking at state assault weapons bans, and mass shootings in the state, he found no relationship between the two variables. That could be due to the ease in purchasing a weapon in one state and driving to another state. That could have happened in Rhode Island this weekend.
But Mr. Shivers found a strong negative relationship between a state having an assault weapons ban and the gun death rate in the state, which is significantly lower. In addition to looking at the correlation statistics, he also conducted other tests. The average gun death rate per 100,000 was 6.9, which is much lower than the gun death rate of non-AWB states: 16.7.
In fact, his research showed that not a single state with an assault weapons ban had an above average gun death rate. Each of these findings had results that were statistically significant.
Of course, the gun death rate in a state is not always caused by a mass shooting or crime. Such deaths can be caused by accident or suicide. And as his difference of means test shows, there are still gun deaths in states with bans on assault weapons, though certainly at a much lower rate. Some bans certainly grandfather in such weapons as well.
What is probably happening is that a state which has banned assault weapons is far more likely to take other measures to limit other guns getting into the wrong hands, and may well have more strict gun registration requirements or other standards. It’s not proof that gun bans eliminate crime or chaos. But it is evidence against the argument that such gun bans lead to more gun deaths.