Happy New Year From Pagosa Country!
2022 was a turbulent year around the globe. We had war in Ukraine, COVID, a broken political system at home, inflation, stock market turmoil, interest rates doubled, and a lot of negative talk about the possibility of an upcoming recession. With all that being said, Pagosa Springs is a sanctuary in a beautiful mountain setting with a river running through it. The grass is greener and the people are friendly. It’s a nice place to visit, and an even better place to call home.
Here’s what’s happening around town. I just completed a phone survey and spoke to several hotels and merchants to see how the holiday season went. Across the board, everybody said it was very good. We’ll start to see things slow down over the next couple of weeks, and then Winterfest happens January 20 through 22. Fortunately, we just got a big dump of snow over the past week or so. Wolf Creek Ski Area has 94” at the top, 83” midway, and received 59” of new snow over the past 7 days.
Now for the latest real estate news. 2022 had two stories. In the first quarter, the market was red hot – multiple offers and offers above asking price and almost no inventory. Prices were at their peak back in March. Then the Fed started to act, and mortgage interest rates jumped dramatically – more than doubling. Fortunately, they have come back down a little. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently at 6.1% and a 15-year is at 5.3%.
Back in March, we had no inventory – about 35 homes available. Today we have 3 times than many, at 102. During the second half of the year, prices were in decline. With that being said, overall prices are still up from a year ago. Total sales for the year ended down 37% with home sales down 27%, condos down 13%, and vacant land 47%. The number of sales is now back to pre-pandemic levels.
Sales in the month of December were way down. We had only 35 deals close in December compared to 85 a year ago.
Pending sales on the first of the year were at 45 compared to 110 a year ago.
Make sure you check out all the stats and graphs below. They tell quite a story.
So, what does the real estate market in Pagosa Springs hold for us in the future? Most of the economists expect the first half of 2023 to be sluggish. Hopefully the recession, if it happens, will have a soft landing.
The Fed is going to continue to raise rates another 0.75% to 1% to fight inflation. How will that affect mortgage rates? I don’t know. Right now, mortgage brokers are not doing much business. About a third of the home buyers in our marketplace are cash buyers. Probably over half of the land deals are cash. So it does help out to have some folks who don’t need a loan. A lot of buyers are just sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what prices will do in the future. They’re also waiting to see what kind of new inventory will show up on the horizon.
If you are a seller and want to take advantage of the windfall of equity growth over the past couple of years, you don’t want to be too greedy. It is no longer a seller’s market. Sharpen your pencils and be ready to adjust your values down to attract buyers. A year ago, when preparing your home for sale, you didn’t even need to make your beds. Today you need to be a shiny penny if you want to compete. You may also want to be creative and set aside funds to buy down interest rates.
So long for now. I want to wish you and your family, along with all the military and first responders, a wonderful new year.
Featured Property: 7170 N Pagosa Blvd, $573,900
Brand New Home. Big mountain views of Pagosa Peak and the Continental Divide. Walking distance to the National Forest & Lake Hatcher for the fisherman in the family. Great location, on a paved road and only 10 minutes from restaurants, churches, hospital, recreation center, 27 hole golf course & 3 other private fishing lakes.
This beautiful home has a multitude of upgrades; granite countertops, fully-tiled showers, in-floor heat, garage set up for electric car, vaulted ceilings in the great room, and a freestanding gas fireplace. The kitchen has all stainless steel appliances, including a double oven and beautiful upgraded maple cabinets. No scratch vinyl wood flooring and a Trex deck. You will spend a lot of quality time on the large covered deck off the Family Room enjoying the spectacular views! This home is priced below market for a quick sale.
Pagosa Springs real estate agent Lee Riley has regularly been one of the area’s top selling Realtors® in recent years and offers a wide selection of real estate facts and information on his web site at ISellPagosa.com