The unfolding horror in Gaza has galvanized a powerful international momentum calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state. On July 29, France and Saudi Arabia, with the support of the Arab League and 16 other co-chairs, issued the New York Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State solution, stating:
“In the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority, with international engagement and support, in line with the objective of a sovereign and independent Palestinian State.”
Despite the insurmountable difficulties in reaching such an agreement, I have always maintained that there will be no other realistic alternative. Hamas’ attack and Israel’s retaliatory war have only reaffirmed that starkly.
This represents a historic opportunity that the Palestinians, Israel, and the US must not miss. They face two choices: either embrace this momentum toward peace with security and grow and prosper together, or allow another momentous opportunity to slip into the shadows of violence and political paralysis for decades to come.
Hamas is at a Crossroads
Here is my message to Hamas:
They have committed unprecedented savagery and invited untold devastation on the Palestinians in Gaza. They must now choose. The first option is the continuation of their futile, violent resistance, potentially facing utter decimation as a fighting force, clinging to the illusory ideals as a movement to liberate Palestine, but always on the run. This plays into Netanyahu’s hands, robbing the Palestinians of realizing their dream of living in peace and security.
Hamas can capitalize on the international momentum in support of a Palestinian state, which they ironically can claim to have brought back to the fore. They must listen to the call of the entire Arab world, disarm and turn over their arsenals to the PA, renounce violence as a political means, and face the inescapable reality that their days of governing Gaza are over.
This is not a surrender; this is playing a pivotal role in ending the Palestinian suffering and not letting their horrific sacrifices over the past 22 months be in vain. Otherwise, fighting to the bitter end would disastrously give Netanyahu the chance to ethnically cleanse Gaza and resettle it with Israeli Jews. Hamas will forfeit a historic opportunity that they have reignited to realize the Palestinians’ aspiration and need for an independent Palestinian state.
To the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank:
They must now awaken to the far-reaching, changing dynamic of their conflict with Israel. They stand a chance to re-assume power in Gaza; they should not squander it. Regardless of the oppression of the Israeli occupation, they must reorganize themselves politically, invite all political factions who renounce violence against Israel (including Hamas, should it elect to do so) to participate in the political process, and plan new elections.
Ideally, a coalition government representing all political parties should be formed, agreeing on one cardinal condition: entering into unconditional peace negotiations with Israel. True, this is a tall order for a corrupt regime, but then again, if the PA fails to rise to this historic occasion, it will only validate the Israeli claim that there is no Palestinian partner with whom to negotiate.
A Time of Reckoning for Israel:
If Hamas’ unfathomably vicious attack and Israel’s unparalleled military onslaught on Gaza after 77 years of Israeli-Palestinian conflict have shown anything, it is that Israel is now and will always be ‘stuck’ with the Palestinians. There is nothing that they can do, not now and not ever, to rid themselves of seven million Palestinians (equal to the number of Israeli Jews). Nearly eight decades of terrorism, violent incursions and wars, reaching a new, unimaginable nadir in the past 22 months, prove that there is only one enduring resolution, which is peace based on a two-state solution.
Fifty-seven years of occupation of the West Bank and 18 years of blockade of Gaza have unequivocally demonstrated that the current conditions are not sustainable. Creeping annexation of the West Bank and resettling Gaza is nightmarish from a security perspective, morally calamitous, and internationally isolating, turning Israel into a pariah. The third option, which is a single democratic state, will never be accepted by Israel, given the demographic equation and the prospect of Israel losing its control and ceasing to be a Jewish state.
Mutual compromises will have to be made — on the Israeli settlements, the Palestinian refugees, security, Jerusalem, and the contours of the final (political) border. There is a solution based on prior Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that can be modified to satisfy many of Israel’s principal requirements.
Israel should not buy the false argument that a Palestinian state represents an existential danger to Israel. Only the opposite is true.
Israel must bear in mind that any concession made on all fronts will pale compared to the continuing bloodshed and devastation from which both will immeasurably suffer for decades to come. A two-state solution is not a gift for the Palestinians; it is in Israel’s best short and long-term security, economic, and geopolitical interests.
The U.S.’ Indispensable Role:
It is hard to exaggerate the indispensable role that the US must play to bring about a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Every US administration supported a two-state solution, including Trump’s, which, in January 2020, released a peace plan that proposed a two-state solution, focusing on Israel’s security and Palestinian self-determination. His position has shifted due to increased evangelical influence in his administration, which opposes the idea. For example, his appointment of Mike Huckabee, a strong critic of the two-state solution, as ambassador to Israel showcases the strong evangelical influence on his current policy.
Trump, who professes to care much about Israel’s national security, should also know that, given the long and intensifying violent confrontations between the two sides, Israel’s ultimate national security rests with a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Gaza war only reaffirmed the dire unsustainability of the conflict, and that supporting Netanyahu’s messianic government, aiming to re-create a greater Israel by displacing the Palestinians from both the West Bank and Gaza, is the recipe for continuing disastrous battles. It will increasingly destabilize the Middle East, depriving Israel of forging peace with many Arab states, while risking Israel’s current peace agreements with six Arab states.
Given Trump’s extraordinary popularity in Israel, he is, unlike any of his predecessors, in a unique position to forge the deal of the century. This is not to suggest that it will be easy to reach a peace agreement only because he wills it. The many conflicting issues, coupled with a complete distrust between the two sides, means it will take considerable time to negotiate an agreement. And once it is reached in principle, it will take a process of reconciliation of several years to mitigate the deeply embedded distrust between them.
Trump is for Trump. For one who badly covets the Nobel Peace Prize, ending the longest conflict since World War II will almost guarantee him receiving it. But more than anything else, he will end decades of strife, sacrifices, and suffering, and usher in regional peace and an unimaginable renaissance.
Is this too utopian to contemplate? Maybe. But then, show me what alternative both sides can agree upon to permanently end the conflict, short of a two-state solution.