Right now, if you follow the media and polls, you’ve probably heard that the Democratic Party is in very good shape as the party seeks to retake the House and Senate. And the Democratic Party should do well in the 2025 election. But I wouldn’t put serious money on it. The party needs to improve several ways, or they won’t take the legislative branch, or the White House, in the next few years.
A headline from Eric Levitz at Vox proclaimed “5 Reasons Democrats Are In Good Shape.” Gallup finds that the Democrats have regained the lead for the first time in more than two years from Republicans in party identification. The Miami Herald claimed that this decline in support for Republicans to be consistent with what happens to an incoming administration. And G. Elliott Morrison from “Strength in Numbers” finds that Democrats lead the GOP on the generic congressional ballot, outside the margin of error. Gone is the five-point advantage the Republicans held in those surveys in early January of 2025.
I fully expect Rep. Mikie Sherrill of the Democrats, who has a lead over former assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who also ran in 2017 and 2021, to prevail in the New Jersey Governor’s race in 2025. Similarly, I can see Democratic Party Rep. Abigail Spanberger to be the next Virginia Governor, as she’s ahead of Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by 12 percentage points, and owns a 2:1 lead in fundraising.
But Democrats have some troubles of their own.
As the Wall Street Journal points out, Democrats have a nearly 65 percent disapproval rating, their worst showing in surveys in 35 years. And even on surveys of corruption, Republicans are doing slightly better with the public than Democrats, despite some current scandals.
Since Inauguration Day, Democrats have been critical of President Trump. That’s a natural role for the opposition party to perform. But that shouldn’t be the only role of the party. The Democrats need to be explaining what they’ll do if they win in 2026, and in 2028.
They have leaders who know legislative and parliamentary procedure, which is good. And they have politicians who can give good speeches. But without a clear agenda, they risk ceding that field to the only group on the left with one, which is the progressives. Many of that wing’s ideas wouldn’t be supported by the average voter, which may complicate the party’s politics. The New York City Mayor’s race is a good example of this.
“Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line,” quipped sportscaster Colin Cowherd. He’s not wrong. The Democrats are united in opposition to Trump, but they have a unity issue on what to do if given the chance to lead. The party’s got 13 months to figure that out. Newt Gingrich may not be a likeable characters among Democrats, but his “Contract with America” was the stuff of brilliance, helping his party escape the legislative wilderness. Anything new like that needs to be as brief and as understandable as the Contract was, written “so my Ma in Waco can understand it,” former Texas Governor Ann Richards once said.
Project 2025 was pretty simple too, you know. A good example was Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and colleagues reintroduced the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act this past week in response to voter roll purges in Georgia. These senators need to explain to Americans how it will politically empower every American.
Resting on their current lead and 2025 successes, the Democrats could be facing disappointment next year and in the next presidential election without such changes.