Texas conducted an unusual mid-decade redrawing of Congressional districts for the state. California responded in kind with a ballot measure to temporarily suspend their independent-commission-drawn districts.
The debate over how the people are to be represented in the people’s House of Representatives has turned into a partisan battle. Each party accuses the other side of gerrymandering in a way that makes it hard to determine who is correct.
My LaGrange College undergraduates from my U.S. Government class and I researched this very question, from a scientific standpoint. We are now able to determine which states have drawn their districts for political power, instead of fairly representing their constituents.
Akajah Burton, Kaylee Cadwell, Parker Copeland, Max Dopp, Genny Garza, McKenna Gaskins, Rontay Grady, Memphis Green, Kayla Helms, Andrew Hiers, Zymarion Hudson, Harlee Lloyd, Lucy McCoy, Cherise Mutebi, Macy Ogletree, Phoebe Rocker, Seth Rome, John Sams, Joshua Sellers, Ben Shoger, Christiana Walker, Palmer Walker, and Jonathan Wible gathered data on how Americans voted for the House in 2024, using data from SHAVE.
They used Ballotpedia and other sources to see what the distribution of representatives are by state.
Unless you’re King Solomon, it’s difficult to figure out how to carve up states with a single representative. It’s not much easier when the state has two House members. We looked at all states with three or more representatives — so, not Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia or Wyoming.
We subtracted the seat percentage for Republicans from the voting percentage for the Republican Party (we could have done the same for Democrats and found the same results). Those states which are one standard deviation above average, and one below average, to determine who is carving the districts well beyond the norm, for political gain.
The 17 states that have a gerrymandering-style in favor of the Republican Party are Arizona, Arkansas*, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa*, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska*, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma*, South Carolina*, Tennessee*, Utah*, and Wisconsin*.
The 11 states that appear to be gerrymandered in favor of the Democratic Party include California, Connecticut*, Illinois*, Maryland, Massachusetts*, Nevada*, New Jersey, New Mexico*, New York, Oregon*, and Washington.
An asterisk designates two or more standard deviations above average, the most egregious cases of partisan district drawing.
Several states have gaps that are not a standard deviation above average. Those states not engaging in gerrymandering include Alabama, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
Freshman student Jonathon Wible drove down with me to Columbus, Georgia, to share the data with the Sons of the American Revolution Coweta Falls Chapter on 9/11, earning a certificate in the process for his high-stakes presentation.
If you’re interested in similar opportunities to research a subject in a nonpartisan fashion, and engage in a presentation of the scientific data, please contact others. Whether you’re Republican, Democratic, or Independent, we’d love to have you join our research team.