By David Korten
A recent New York Times story entitled “China’s Population Falls, Heralding a Demographic Crisis” evoked in me a strong negative response. It characterizes China’s recent shift from population growth to population decline as a devastating blow to the health of the Chinese and global economies. Implicit in the article’s argument is the idea that growing the economy is a defining human purpose.
It then reviews China’s efforts to encourage its women to produce more babies. The article never mentions that growth in human population and consumption is driving a global environmental crisis.
The problem of population growth was first brought to global attention by Rachael Carson’s book Silent Spring in 1962, when global population was 3.1 billion. Carson’s warning was augmented in 1972 by the book Limits to Growth, which reported on an MIT computer model that demonstrated the inevitable devastating consequences of sustained economic growth on a finite planet. Publicized by influential Club of Rome thought leaders, that report captured global attention. By then, global population had reached 3.8 billion. At that point, the Global Footprint Network estimated that humans were consuming slightly more that Earth could sustain in the long run.
We now have a global population of 8.0 billion. Annual global GDP has grown from $1.6 trillion in 1962 to $96.1 trillion now. The Global Footprint Network now estimates that it would take 1.75 Earth-like planets to sustain current human consumption. Yet we have only one Earth and our current global economic system falls far short of providing a secure and fulfilling means of living for the population we already have.
With these facts in mind, I found the Times article deeply discouraging. Its assumption that China must grow its population in order to grow its economy seemed absolutely backward. I asked myself if we will remain ever captive to a story that the purpose of humanity is to grow the economy.
Then my attention shifted to the 1,932 reader comments on the article. Most readers shared my concerns about the environmental issues created by the already excessive human population burden on a finite living Earth.
I found those comments reassuring evidence that a great many people recognize that the global economy is failing us big time. They seem ready for serious exploration of options that recognize our dependence on a finite living Earth.
Which brings me to the matter of the importance of asking the right question. Will we continue to ask how people can better serve the economy? Or will we ask how the economy can better serve the living Earth and all its people?
We will get our future right only if we get our question right.
Dr. David C. Korten is the founder and president of the Living Economies Forum; co-founder and board chair emeritus of YES! Magazine; and a full member of the Club of Rome. He is best known for his seminal books framing a new economy for the Ecological Civilization to which humanity must now transition.
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