PHOTO: ‘Lucky Peach’ vintage Chinese fertility figurine, porcelain, made in Hong Kong circa 1980.
A few things are definitely going to happen in 2023.
Well, more than a few. Actually, a whole lot of things are going to happen in 2023. We can’t even count the number of things that are going to happen in 2023.
But only a limited number of things will appear in the mainstream media, as being worth talking about.
For example, I will definitely buy a new pair of jeans in 2023, but no one will cover it in the media. (Except maybe me.)
Here’s one of the limited number of things the media is talking about, and it hasn’t even happened yet:
India will become the world’s most populous country during 2023. The experts at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs are predicting that India’s population will surpass China’s population sometime in the middle of April. (NOTE: Not on April Fool’s Day.) Apparently, a bunch of babies were conceived last August, mostly in Mumbai and Delhi, but also a sizable number in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad.
In the contest to be the most populous country, China has been slacking lately. A thousand years ago, India was the world’s most populous country, but around 1750, China moved to the head of the line, and has held first place honors ever since.
Until 2023.
It’s all about the fertility rate. China (population 1.42 billion) is currently popping out babies at a rate of about 1.5 per 1,000 women in the population. India (population 1.41 billion) is kicking butt, with 2.1 births per 1,000 women. (The U.S. rate is about 1.6 per. For comparison, the rate in the Democratic Republic of Congo is about 6.2 per.)
It seems the potential mothers in China decided, “Hey, maybe 1.4 billion people is enough.” While the moms in India said, “Let’s shoot for 1.5 billion!”
I’m not sure if the legalization of marijuana is connected to the fertility rate in Colorado, but the rate here has dropped from 1.8 per, in 2012, to less than 1.5 per. About 1.48, to be exact.
You don’t want to know the fertility rate in Archuleta County. Suffice it to say, the median age here is 50 years old, compared with Colorado at 38 years old.
Also, strollers don’t work well in snow.
Did I mention Archuleta County has more marijuana dispensaries per capita, than almost any town in Colorado?
Anyway, here’s what the experts at the UN are saying about China, which currently has a median age similar to Colorado:
China’s working age population, which is defined as those aged between 15 and 64, has declined from the peak of 997 million in 2014, to 986 million last year, media reports said.
At the rate things are going, China’s ‘working age population’ will shrink to about 380 million by the end of the century. So if you’ve been thinking about upgrading your iPhone, you might not want to wait.
George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre, and former chief economist at investment bank UBS, told The South China Morning Post:
“There’s a 1:1 relationship between the change in the working-age population and economic growth.”
So with China’s working-age population vanishing, the GDP will be lower by the same amount each year on average, unless it can be mitigated, says Mr. Magnus, who appears to be an expert.
Mitigated by, for example, immigration, or higher labor force participation by older workers. Or… more babies? Babies who can grow up to be ‘workers’?
Looks like, by 2050, the median age in China will be about 50 years old, by 2050. At the rate things are going.
Pagosa Springs is already there.
In the race for a thriving economy, however, we note that China just last month repealed its dreadful COVID lock-down policy.
Archuleta County, meanwhile, came out of our dreadful lock-down well over a year ago. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Xi Jinping!
Underrated writer Louis Cannon grew up in the vast American West, although his ex-wife, given the slightest opportunity, will deny that he ever grew up at all.