The study by Root Policy Research presented at the Pagosa Springs Town Council meeting last Tuesday — “Short-Term Rental Fee Study” — is making its way around town, digitally and by word of mouth, especially (I presume) among the STR owners who will likely be paying higher fees at some point in the near future, and especially (I presume) among the real estate agents who made a good deal of money over the past two years selling residential homes to investors willing to convert the homes into mini-motels.
The numbers, the ‘data’, generated by the Root Policy team will be analyzed… and criticized, or praised, depending on your economic position in Pagosa Springs, and depending on your vision of Pagosa’s future.
I write an opinion piece like this one, five days a week, and it’s shared in the Daily Post ‘Opinion/Letters’ section. Some people in Pagosa Springs are of the opinion that the STR industry’s arrival has been a blessing to our community, and they may even be of the opinion that the tourism industry as a whole has been a blessing.
Those opinions are occasionally supported by ‘data’. More often, they are supported by a certain mythology. But even where ‘data’ is available — as it is, in teh Root Policy study — the data is itself only an opinion. Whenever statisticians (or news editors) take Number A and compare it to Number B, and find some kind of ‘correlation’, that correlation is a type of opinion. I call it an “opinion”, because instead of comparing Number A to Number B, the statistician (or news editor) could have compared Number A to Number C, or Number D, and found a different correlation. Things can get even further removed from reality if Number A is multiplied by Number B.
We generally choose our comparisons, and our multipliers, based on our opinions.
Or, based on who is paying for the study.
So here, for your consideration, are some opinions about Pagosa Springs.
In Part Five, last week, I shared some comments made by Short-Term Rental owner Jeremy Filer at the December 6 Pagosa Springs Town Council meeting.
Here’s one of his comments, again.
“But I would also argue that no great ski town in America is… that they all change. And the same people that want the Pagosa that they once knew, have no problem doing things that have never been done, to small businesses. Increasing Short Term Rental fees by… well, mine grew by 15x overnight…”
I have to agree with Mr. Filer, that great ski towns do indeed undergo changes.
We might look to Aspen, Colorado, for one example… a booming mining town in the late 1800s that fell on hard times in the early 1900s and saw its population dwindle to about 700 people. But the town had old commercial buildings and homes, along with excellent snow. Aspen’s development as a ski resort got a boost when Friedl Pfeifer, a member of the 10th Mountain Division who had trained in the area, returned to the area after World War II and linked up with wealthy industrialist Walter Paepcke and his wife Elizabeth, to found the Aspen Skiing Company in 1946. The area continued to grow in popularity with the development of three additional ski areas, Buttermilk (1958), Aspen Highlands (1958), and Snowmass (1967).
By my count, that would be four ski areas within three miles of downtown Aspen, which resulted in huge changes to the city’s economic prospects.
One result: Aspen’s single-family home prices are among the highest of any community in the country. Demand for housing around Aspen soared during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the median sales price of a single-family home in 2021 was $9.5 million. (‘Median’ means, of course, that half of the available homes were priced higher than $9.5 million.) A 2021 study by Savills, a global real estate broker, declared that prime Aspen real estate was the most expensive on a per-square-foot-basis of the 44 global ski resort markets it studied.
Relatively less expensive housing can be found just outside the city limits in nearby Snowmass Village, where a median single-family home can be had for a mere $5.2 million in 2021.
If you are a visitor during ski season, you can book a room at the Hotel Jerome for $2,094 a night, or at the St. Regis Aspen Resort for $3,099 a night.
Another result: commuting to work. When housing became too expensive in Aspen, the workforce relocated to Basalt. When Basalt became too expensive, the workers moved to Carbondale. When Carbondale became too expensive, they moved to Glenwood Springs… an hour’s drive away. Where to, next?
But all this discussion relates a ‘great ski town’.
People often harbor mistaken beliefs about the communities they live in, and one of the well-loved myths about Pagosa Springs is that we are a great ski town.
Yes, there’s a fine ski hill — Wolf Creek Ski Area — located about 30 minutes away, about halfway between Pagosa Springs and South Fork, Colorado. But despite the fact that the Town of Pagosa Springs proudly belongs to the Colorado Association of Ski Towns, we hardly qualify as a ‘ski town’.
In my opinion, Pagosa Springs will never be a great ski town, even though real estate prices have risen considerably… and the median price of a single-family home in suburban Pagosa Lakes rose from $157,000 in 2011, to $450,000 last year.
I’m speaking here about the economy, but also about the mythology.
To better understand Pagosa’s economy, we can look, for example, at the sales tax collected by the Archuleta County government.
During three months of summer 2022 — June, July, and August — Archuleta County collected $5.33 million in sales tax.
During three months of winter 2022 — January, February, and March — Archuleta County collected $3.93 million in sales tax. This total includes the month of March, when Wolf Creek Ski Area traditionally sees a relatively massive influx of ‘Spring Break’ skiers. (I did not include December, because Christmas shopping skews the sales tax figures during that month.)
The sales tax collected during the three months of the ‘ski season’ in 2022 was actually less than the sales tax collected during the preceding ‘shoulder season’ — September, October, November — which totaled $4.40 million.
Contrary to popular belief, Pagosa Springs is not a ‘ski town’… Pagosa Springs is a ‘summer town…’ judging by sale tax revenues.
As you see, above, I have chosen certain numbers to compare. The numbers individually may be generally accepted…
…but the way they get compared, and the correlations and conclusions drawn? Those are opinions, and they belong in the “Opinion/Letters” section.
Root Policy’s opinion in their new study — and it’s just that, an opinion, funded by the Town government — is that the Town government is justified in collecting substantially higher fees from the STR industry.
Root Policy did not express an opinion about how the increased fees, if created, ought to be spent. The implication, however, is that the Town should use at least part of the money to help solve the housing crisis…
Bill Hudson began sharing his opinions in the Pagosa Daily Post in 2004 and can’t seem to break the habit. He claims that, in Pagosa Springs, opinions are like pickup trucks: everybody has one.