During the 2024 election and 2026 primary season, I received a lot of flyers where candidates seemed to run solely on the right on transgender issues. It may give the impression that all Americans are anti-transgender, and that this can be a winning issue for conservatives. But as surveys show, Americans are increasingly shifting to views on LGBTQ people that accept, and even promote, freedom for folks to be the way they want be. And these kinder views are increasingly being embraced by Christians.
For the last two election cycles, television and mailings mocked transgender athletes in a way as to make them look like they were 40-year-old bearded guys. Candidates touted their anti-trans credentials in hopes of appealing to the base. But all Americans, and increasingly the base, may be more open and accepting than politicians.
In a recent Fox News poll, a clear majority of voters (56%) embraced the Democratic Party on transgender issues. Only 43% of voters opted for the Republican position. And this is in the same survey where voters favor the GOP on immigration and border security issues, as well as crime and national security, so it was not an exceptionally, or even moderately, liberal pool who were polled.
What’s more is that the General Social Survey documents some big changes in the American public’s views over the last 20 years. In 2004, George W. Bush made opposition to gay marriage a centerpiece of his campaign, after a Massachusetts court ruling. And as you’ll see, nearly every religion category has increased their support for the position that “Homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another.” Mainline Protestants have increased their support for gay marriage over the last 20 years from 32% to 78%. For Catholics, that increase is from 37% to 68% over that same time period. From 2004 to 2024, those of other faiths jumped in support of gay marriage from 42% to 70%.
For those with no religion, liberal or conservative, those numbers jumped from just under 50 percent to 81 percent.
Only a minority of those who consider themselves Evangelical, as well as African American Protestants, support gay marriage. But support for gay marriage in both communities have dramatically increased. For Evangelicals, support for gay marriage has gone up from 12% to 35% from 2004 to 2024. For African American Protestants, it’s up from 15% to 35% over the last 20 years. Nationwide, that translates to more than 60% support for gay marriage.
Why is this the case? In prior research, I reported on survey data that shows that if you actually know someone who is gay, or transgender, you tend to have a far more positive view of both people than if you never met someone who is LGBTQ. Knowing someone can help dispel those myths that are often parroted on some networks, or even on social media.
On transgender issues, there’s another reason for the change. Less than half of one percent of high school athletes are transgender, while for colleges, it’s 0.002%. But some proposed solutions have strangers doing gender verification on all female athletes, which affects a lot more athletes, as well their parents and family.
Given that some in our Congress refuse to investigate several major scandals involving political figures and underage girls, there’s plenty of trust concerns among parents about those who may be doing the checking, given oversight issues.
John A. Tures is Professor of Political Science and Coordinator of the Political Science Program at LaGrange College, in LaGrange, Georgia. His first book, “Branded”, is available on Amazon. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu.