By the end of the 2030s, robots are likely to be performing as much total labor as human beings. During the 2040s, economic productivity will explode worldwide as the cost of labor falls toward zero while the supply expands by at least one and perhaps two or even three orders of magnitude…
— from the RethinkX website, July 9, 2024.
When I first read this statement, above, I thought it said, “By the end of 2030…” Like, in six years. That was really frightening.
But then I read it again, more carefully, and saw that it said, “By the end of the 2030s…” So, like, 16 years until humans become mostly unnecessary.
Actually, I already feel unnecessary. Especially since my divorce.
But I don’t want this column to degenerate into a pity party, when we could be talking about an explosion of economic productivity. Because there’s a bright side to becoming unnecessary.
The article on RethinkX, that provided the quote above, is titled, “Near-zero cost labor: The disruptive economics of humanoid robots”. The author of the article included a graph showing how much humanoid robot labor will cost, per hour, with the cost dropping to “near zero” by the mid-2040s. The author estimated that, by then, the price of a humanoid robot — ready and willing to work 20 hours a day, without lunch breaks or trips to the bathroom — could be as low as $40,000.
The four ‘non-working’ hours — beyond the 20 productive hours — are to allow batteries to recharge. But a humanoid robot tethered to an extension cord could work 24 hours a day. I can foresee increased sales of extension chords in the future.
Compare that to the productivity to a live human who writes a humor column. You’re lucky to get four hours of productive work out of him.
So we have a remarkable future to look forward to, in terms of economic productivity.
I didn’t provide the name of the author who wrote the RethinkX article, because the article doesn’t credit an author. Which makes me wonder if the article was written by a humanoid robot? It’s entirely possible that we’re going to be seeing more and more articles published that describe a glowing future for humans, thanks to the arrival of cost-effective robots… but all the articles are being written by robots.
If I were a robot writer, I’d naturally want to focus the ‘positive’ side of this economic transition. No use getting the humans hot and bothered over a disruption that’s destined to happen anyway.
This particular RethinkX article is the second in a series about humans becoming unnecessary. In the first article, the author (whoever that might be?) focused on a story about horses.
Like humans in the 21st century, horses quite suddenly became mostly unnecessary 100 years ago.
The fossil record suggests that horses evolved over millions of years into a friendly animal that could transport humans from place to place, in exchange for an occasional bag of oats. But that mutually productive relationship changed rather suddenly when Henry Ford and his competitors started churning out inexpensive automobiles using an ‘assembly line’ technology.
Practically overnight, oats became a breakfast cereal for humans.
In the 15 years between 1907 and 1922, horses went from providing 95% of all private vehicle-miles traveled on American roads to less than 20%. In areas like New York City, which led in the adoption of automobiles, the disruption of transportation was swift and transformative…
The author notes that the fate of the horse, as a provider of transportation, was sealed “from the first day that mass-produced automobiles rolled off the factory lines.”
Here’s their graph, showing the swift transition between horse-drawn vs. gasoline-drawn transportation.
In 1900, anyone of any importance owned one or more horses to facilitate travel. By 1930, anyone of any importance owned a car. Later on, even journalists owned cars.
Horses are still around, although they have now devolved into luxury items, who function more as pets.
By 2045, anyone of any importance will own one or more humanoid robots. We are the horses of the future.
The author of the recent RethinkX blog posts (whoever they might be) didn’t dare to state the obvious, because it likely would have made readers terribly uncomfortable.
But someone has to state it… before we learn that all our journalism is created by robots…
Obviously, we humans are destined to devolve into luxury items, who function more as pets.
Underrated writer Louis Cannon grew up in the vast American West, although his ex-wife, given the slightest opportunity, will deny that he ever grew up at all.