BIG PIVOTS: Colorado Exceeds Its Goal for EV Adoption

This article is excerpted from a story by Allen Best on BigPivots.com. Read the entire article on BigPivots.com.

Jeff Neuman-Lee, a retired minister who lives in Denver’s Whittier neighborhood, can easily be classified as an early adopter. In 2019, he bought his first electric vehicle, a Tesla. That was a year when EVs constituted less than 4% of new-car sales in Colorado. This year, when he bought another EV, a different model of Tesla, he had more company.

EV sales in the first six months were 13% of total sales in Colorado. In the third quarter sales surged to 17.1%.

“It’s an incredible number,” said Travis Madsen, transportation program manager for the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, a non-profit advocacy group. “This also puts Colorado in the top 5 nationally. California has been in the 20% range, and it sounds like Colorado is going to hit that mark pretty soon.”

Hitting that mark would help Colorado to meet the target identified in an EV plan issued in March by the Colorado Energy Office of 25% of all new-car sales by 2025. The plan also calls for 70% of all sales by 2030.

As of mid-November, light-duty EVs constitute 1.27% of all the light-duty vehicles on Colorado’s streets and highways.
In announcing the third-quarter sales, the Polis administration pointed to executive actions, new laws, and tax incentives that together, along with federal incentives, have helped move the market.

“Colorado’s electric vehicle sales are soaring because people know these cars save people money and often have superior performance,” said Polis in a statement.

Denver has the highest number and Pitkin County has the highest per-capita ownership of EVs. Sales notably surged in Weld and Larimer counties. In this surge, Colorado seems to be bucking a national trend, which has seen a slowdown.

What explains the spike in sales that began this past summer? Part of it, maybe a large part, had to be the new state tax sales credit in Colorado of $5,000 that became effective in July.

“We are starting to see the tax credit result in increased sales,” said Christian Williss, the managing director for transportation fuels and technology with the Colorado Energy Office. Increased product availability has also helped.

“We are seeing more EVs produced and the kinds that Coloradans like, including crossovers and pickups; we are going to see a lot more interest,” said Williss.

A year ago, it was almost impossible to find an EV on a sales lot in Colorado awaiting purchase. Supply chains created during the COVID epidemic were still kinked. Some people continue to wait. One reader of Big Pivots reported only recent possession after ordering in January. But the problems do seem to be diminishing.

Matthew Groves, chief executive of the Colorado Automobile Dealers Association, said he was not entirely surprised by the sales numbers.
But he also pointed out that the car sales in Colorado altogether have increased from 194,000 in 2022 to a projected 209,000 in 2023. Unkinked supply chains provide the top reason why.

Also material in the accelerating sales of EVs has been the expansion of public charging stations. Colorado now has 936 public direct-current fast chargers as well as 3,967 level-two chargers, many of them the result of state and federal programs. Still more are coming.
Madsen, who does have an EV, says he gives little thought to charging when driving in the Denver metro area. “I don’t have to think about it very much. If I am on a road trip with my EV, I have to think a little bit, but it’s not hard.”

Sales must accelerate even more to meet the goals set in October by the Colorado Air Pollution Control Commission. That schedule calls for EVs to constitute 41% of all automotive sales by 2027.

“We just made 17%, but we need to better than double that in the next two years if we are going to meet the intermediate goals of that mandate,” said Groves. The rules adopted by the air quality commissioners require 82% of new vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emissions by 2030. The rulemaking is grounded in HB19-1261, which set economy-wide decarbonization targets of 50% by 2030 and 90% by 2050. That law gave the Air Quality Control Commission lead authority in implementing rules to get Colorado across those finish lines.
This year, in SB23-016, legislators added new interim goals for decarbonization of the economy: 65% by 2035 and 100% by 2050.

A new modeling study suggests Colorado can hit 98.5% decarbonization of its electricity by 2040 without new technological breakthroughs or without breaking the bank. Very likely, Colorado legislators in 2024 will be asked to approve a law making that mandatory.

One major disagreement in Colorado’s recent rulemaking was whether Colorado should go the same route as California, as conservation groups advocated. California will ban any new internal-combustion vehicles by 2035 — but with one notable exception. It allows 20% of the sales to be plug-in hybrids. The reasoning for that exception is that the charging infrastructure isn’t yet complete, explains Jon Klusmire, a California resident (and former Colorado newspaperman and also employee of the Rocky Mountain Institute).

“Environmental groups opposed the plug-in hybrids because they only get, on average, about 44 miles on the electric charge, then go to gas,” explained Klusmire. “I think for urban folks, that electric mileage is probably OK. We rural folks need the gas. For example, it’s a four-hour drive (more than 200 miles) for me (in Bishop) to get to an airport (LA, Reno, Vegas), with the Vegas route going through Death Valley. Not risking running out of juice there.”

In Colorado auto dealers also contend that the benefits of hybrids need to be recognized in this calculation as we try to decarbonize electricity. Hybrids represent a step toward full electrification that can make some buyers more comfortable, Groves said.

Pitkin County is part of this year’s surge in EVs. It has had EVs since 2015, but the county government now has 8 or 10 among its fleet of 120, reports Matt Bergstresser, the county’s fleet manager. During the next year the county plans to double its number of light-duty EVs.

“We are looking at Chevy Blazers, Bolts and Equinoxes, some of the models that are a little more cost-effective,” he said. Partly driving the choice of Chevrolet, he said, is a relationship with the company’s support division.

Pitkin County has also been investing in charging stations. Construction is underway for two at the Aspen-Pitkin County Airport. “We’re looking 5 to 20 years down the road, so we can really increase the fleet,” Bergstresser said. But that electrical infrastructure for high-speed charging does not come cheap. “It can be a very expensive endeavor.”

Dozens of new EV models will be introduced by automakers by the end of 2024, reported Consumer Reports in an April article. Toyota alone plans to launch 10 EV models by 2026.