Now that we know where the most renters are in trouble, we have the tools we need to prevent a new kind of pandemic. Families who fell behind on rent don’t have time to wait…
— from The New York Times op-ed, “How Many People Are at Risk of Losing Their Homes in Your Neighborhood?” by Sema K. Sgaier and Aaron Dibner-Dunlap, July 28, 2021.
There’s little doubt that we have an eviction crisis underway.
We also have an information crisis underway.
Last Wednesday, The New York Times posted an op-ed by Sema Sgaier and Aaron Dibner-Dunlap. “Dr. Sgaier is a co-founder and the chief executive of Surgo Ventures, a nonprofit health organization where Mr. Dibner-Dunlap is a senior research scientist.”
A fascinating article, on several accounts, and one that came illustrated with two colorful, interactive maps, where you could (supposedly) find out what percentage of renters in your community were behind on their rent, and how much, on average, they owed their landlord in back rent. The article focused on the the national moratorium on evictions, which expired on Saturday, thus allowing landlords to start or continue eviction proceedings in most states.
This problem is especially acute in 250 counties where at least one-fifth of renters are behind, according to our analysis. But nationwide, the sheer scale of rent debt is alarming: An estimated $23 billion in all is outstanding, with about $3,800 per average household in arrears.
According to the NYT authors, state and local governments were given access to nearly $50 billion in federal Emergency Rental Assistance funds. It would appear, in other words, that the federal government had allocated twice as much money as we actually needed to address the crisis.
But the money reached “only a small fraction” of the people who needed it.
The authors give a couple of examples of the program’s failure.
…$158 million has been disbursed in California, while over $1 billion was applied for. South Carolina is faring worse: less than $1 million has been disbursed, out of $39 million requested… There is also a huge eligibility gap: We estimate that of the 6.2 million households in arrears, half make more money than the federal program allows and therefore aren’t eligible. The result is that at-risk households in nearly every county are still catastrophically behind.
If you live in Colorado and need rental assistance, you can learn more here.
The authors based their report on the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, “from which we were able to estimate every renting household’s likelihood of being behind on rent.”
Or… maybe not?
One of the interactive maps included in the NYT op-ed allows the reader to click on individual counties and see the percentage of rental households that were behind on rent. If you clicked on “Archuleta County” the map told you that about 11.7% of households are late on paying their rent. Archuleta County is highlighted with a black outline. The percentage is noted at the top of the map.
Another interactive map purported to display the average ‘dollar amount’ owed to landlords, by tardy tenants in, for example, Archuleta County.
If this number were accurate, then the average Archuleta County landlord dealing with a tardy renter is owed about three months back rent, given the typical rents here in Pagosa Springs, which I estimate at about $1500 per month.
Except that this number appears to be statistically inaccurate.
The NYT authors are claiming that about $4,004 is owed in Archuleta County, on average. See map above.
Curiously enough, that exact same dollar amount is owed in neighboring La Plata County: $4,004. See map below.
And even more curiously, perhaps, the exact same dollar amount is owed in neighboring Hinsdale County. $4,004.
The other NYT map — the map claiming to portray the approximate percentage of renters who are behind on rent (shown at the top of this editorial) — displays the same curiously repeating pattern.
The percentage in Archuleta County is “11.7%”. The percentage in La Plata County is “11.7%”. Exact same percentage in each of these surrounding counties: Hinsdale, Montezuma, San Juan, and Dolores. “11.7%”
Obviously, this data is not accurate.
Obviously, the federal Census Bureau doesn’t know what the real numbers are. Did they simply invent the numbers? We’re not sure, and we have to assume that the NYT authors are equally unsure. Yet they were willing to share maps in The New York Times with no indication that these numbers are “vague estimates based on sketchy federal numbers.”
I have no problem with a professional news organization stating, for example, “The percentage of renters behind on their lease payments in Archuleta County is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 5% – 20%.” Be honest about what you know, and what you don’t know.
But the media is not always completely honest. Nor are our governments always honest.
I’d like to see a little more honesty. Too bad we don’t have a vaccine for that.
With that concept in mind, I was impressed by a recent study released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) indicating that vaccinated individuals in the US are just as likely to spread COVID-19 as unvaccinated people…. and that, during a recent outbreak in Providence, RI, the vast majority of new infections were among fully vaccinated people.
“Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated…” According to my interpretation of this research, five of these 469 cases required hospitalization. Four of the five people hospitalized were fully vaccinated.
You can read about that study, here.
It’s not pleasant, I’m sure, for health professionals to admit that they may have been wrong about the level protection offered by the vaccines, after vaccinating half of the US population. But a healthy dose of honesty can go a long way, if you want people’s trust.
Bill Hudson began sharing his opinions in the Pagosa Daily Post in 2004 and can’t seem to break the habit. He claims that, in Pagosa Springs, opinions are like pickup trucks: everybody has one.