In Part Seven of his series on the housing crisis, Bill Hudson describes how by utilizing the already available land in Pagosa Springs, the population could expand “from 1,500 people to 6,000 people”. I hope, for the sake of the quality of life in Pagosa Springs, he doesn’t really want that to happen.
We have an affordable housing problem here in central Florida as well. Our problem is not that we can’t get people to move here because of a lack of housing. It’s that to many are moving here.
Since the pandemic, Florida has an unprecedented migration of northerners leaving States run by Democrat governors. Who can blame them, when those governors have taken on the mantle of petite dictators, whereas our governor treats us like adults, minimized business closings, and loathes mandates. We also have no State income tax.
The sharks, alligators, poisonous snakes/insects, mosquitos, flying cockroaches the size of small birds, stifling humidity, hurricanes and the highest rate of lightning strikes per square mile on the planet aren’t a deterrent to people who value individual freedom. After all, Florida was founded by debt-fugitives from northern states. And of course there are the Seminoles who fled here rather than be forcibly removed from their Cherokee homelands on the Trail of Tears. (In the Cherokee language, Seminole means ‘runaway’.)
This latest wave of freedom seekers are buying up the available homes at above-market prices. Which is having a serious impact on the locals.
How bad is it? Take my own modest 30+ year old, 3-bedroom home in a mixed white/blue collar “bedroom community” as an example. Ours doesn’t showcase the Florida manicured lawn you see in the real estate ads. We’ve xeriscaped, using native foliage requiring no irrigation or chemicals…
…which doesn’t necessarily make for HGTV dream home “curb appeal”. Yet my neighbor (a realtor) says we could easily get $300k for it.
I would never pay $300k for this house. Apparently, though, the ‘damn Yankees’ moving here to escape northern dictatorships will. (BTW – the difference between a ‘Yankee’ and a ‘damn Yankee’ is that the former come as tourists, spend money and leave, while the latter come here and stay.)
Those who come as tourists (in the numbers we get) create another set of problems, as I previously wrote about.
And just as in Pagosa, the tourists contribute to the housing problem.
We are the closest community to the Kennedy Space Center, and within a half-hour drive of both the Canaveral National Seashore, and Cocoa Beach — three primary tourist destinations. So many of the available homes are being bought up for short-term rentals as soon as they go on the market.
Though our “community” has 4500+ single-family houses, we still have an “affordable housing crisis”. According to my realtor neighbor, as of this week there are only 86 on the market, all of which are over-priced.
So we are experiencing the worst of both worlds — an unprecedented migration of out-of-Staters wanting to buy homes, and record numbers of tourists creating a demand for short-term rentals. Young local working families are priced out of the single-family home market, and forced into rental apartments with annual rent increases outrunning inflation.
Now I can hear some of you saying, “Well, at least there are apartments!” True. But to get into a decent complex that doesn’t have a certain number of government-subsidized ‘Section 8′ units requires more money up-front than most young families can come up with. Unless they spend whatever they’ve managed to save toward a down-payment on a home.
Here is an example of the up-front cost to move in to a 700 sq-ft, two bedroom apartment: First ($1200) and last ($1200) month’s rent; security deposit ($500-$1000); deposit to get your electricity turned on ($200). That’s $3k to $4k, just to get into a decent apartment. Money which could go toward a down-payment to purchase a home — if you could find one you can afford.
Bill Hudson suggests that government get involved in affordable housing construction. Though I contributed to that discussion by suggesting the land purchased in the “Dry Gulch Reservoir” be used as a site for affordable housing, I have little confidence in government doing it efficiently or within budget.
So what is my solution? I don’t have one — other than wishing for an end to human greed.
But since that is not likely, the only other solution I’ve heard is one my realtor neighbor says is needed to get the housing market sane again. The “housing bubble” needs to burst like it did in 2007.
She says that will impact her business, but it will still be better than the “insanity” (her word) she is dealing with now — a ‘bidding war’ between out-of-state short-term rental buyers and new northern transplants on nearly every house, leaving local working families out in the cold. She says the only chance those families will have is if we glut the market with foreclosures.
The libertarian, laissez-faire capitalist in me says bring it on. Sometimes the medicine is hard to swallow — but necessary.
Gary Beatty lives between Florida and Pagosa Springs. He retired after 30 years as a prosecutor for the State of Florida, has a doctorate in law, is Board Certified in Criminal Trial law by the Florida Supreme Court, and is now a law professor.