Spring officially kicked off on Saturday here in Pagosa Springs, with a sky full of cirrus clouds, portending the rainstorm that arrived early Sunday morning.
Traditionally, the first day of spring — the spring equinox, the end of winter, the day when the daylight hours equal the hours of night — has been celebrated on March 21. But this year, the actual mathematical equinox came on March 20, and the calendar makers — the folks responsible for this sort of thing — all agreed to mark Saturday, March 20 as the official “First Day of Spring”.
Not much we could do about it. The calendars were printed, and that, as they say, was that.
The sound of the rain on my metal roof, on Sunday morning, reminded me — for some reason — of an old song first made famous by Bing Crosby in 1936, in the midst of the Great Depression.
Every time it rains, it rains pennies from heaven
Don’t you know each cloud contains pennies from heaven?
You’ll find your fortune’s falling all over the town
Make sure that your umbrella is upside down…
Here’s the Frank Sinatra version.
According to the history books — and the stories my parents told me — the 1930 were, for many families and individuals, a stressful decade. At one point, in 1934, unemployment in the US hit 25%; unemployment remained above 15% for almost the entire decade. Farming communities and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by about 60%. Areas dependent on primary sector industries such as mining and logging struggled most.
2020 was another stressful stretch of time, globally. Here in the US, unemployment hit 15% last April, and right now is at about 7%. Officially. That number is deceiving, however, because the US Department of Labor carefully limits the type of workers whom they count as ‘unemployed’. Since the COVID pandemic started a year ago, more than four million Americans have quit the labor force. Many stopped looking for jobs because they were staying home with children; others quit due to health concerns. Many became discouraged by the lack of job openings. Some older workers retired sooner than they’d expected to.
All of these workers — including many who may have wished to remain employed — have been left out of the government’s official unemployment number. So it’s difficult to compare 2020 to 1934.
On the business side of things, certain business sectors were especially hard-hit during 2020. Entertainment. Air travel. Brick-and-mortar retail. Weddings.
Tourism.
Here’s a chart from BBC.com, showing tourism spending well below 2019 for most of last year:
But things are looking rather bright at the Pagosa Springs Town Hall, on Hot Springs Boulevard. Pennies seem to be falling from heaven.
The Town government receives most of its annual income from the 4% local sales tax it splits 50/50 with Archuleta County. The Town had expected to collect about $5.8 million during 2020. The actual 2020 collections were closer to $7 million.
At their regular meeting on March 18, the Pagosa Springs Town Council listened to Town Manager Andrea Phillips report on the sales tax collections from January.
“Yes, it is good news. January was another strong month in sales tax collections for Town and County, bringing in a total of $1,230,886. That’s an increase of 37.8% in sales tax, compared to the same month in 2020. The Town’s share of that is $614,946. So we are starting the year very strong. Happy to answer any questions that you have.”
The Council did not have any questions.
But those of us paying the tax might have questions? Like… what the heck is going on here?
I suspect the jump in local sales tax in January 2021 might be related to a huge influx of “free money” coming from the federal and state governments… and also, to the fact that our local ski area — Wolf Creek Ski Area — was blessed with a fairly normal snow pack in January, while the rest of Colorado remained relatively dry. Vail and Breckenridge usually have about 40-50 inches of snow in January… but this year, both were reporting only about 30 inches. Wolf Creek, meanwhile, had a summit depth of 72″ on January 19.
As we see in the BBC graph, above, tourism in some of the world’s more popular destinations — Italy, Greece, Thailand, Spain — has been far below average for the fall and winter. And airline traffic remains well below ‘normal’ levels. In January 2020 — before the coronavirus began its own global travels — the commercial airlines were making about 115,000 flights per day. The number in January 2021 was down to about 70,000, Although the forecast for 2021 is better than last year, many analysts believe that international travel and tourism won’t return to the normal pre-pandemic levels until around 2025.
Instead of flying somewhere in a plane, for a vacation — wearing a face mask in a crowded airplane cabin, breathing recycled air — families and individuals were looking for exotic places they could drive to — in their own SUV. I’ve often thought of Pagosa Springs as a quaint third-world country located delightfully close to where American citizens live.
And how about all that free money floating around, last January? We consumers all across the US were spending money like our lives depended on it, after the December ‘stimulus’ bill dumped more cash into our bank accounts. Our average incomes rose 10% in January — the biggest increase since last April, when expanded unemployment benefits and the previous CARES Act stimulus checks gave us something to do while we were unemployed or isolated.
That ‘something to do’ — with so many social activities shut down — was to ‘buy stuff’.
The jump in January spending was great news for America’s economy, two-thirds of which relies on consumer spending. That said, spending rose less than economists predicted and was still below pre-pandemic levels this past winter, despite our fattened wallets.
Here in Pagosa Springs, however, spending rose much more than expected… because… well, if you keep your expectations low, you’re sure to be surprised now and then.
Read Part Two…