At the time of this writing, sales tax collections in 2024 have slowed from a high of 9.4% increase in April compared with the same period last year to a low of 0.5% for July. This slowdown is primarily attributed to the presidential election, which historically caused economic uncertainty amongst the public and the conservation of cash. The staff remains cautiously optimistic that Pagosa Springs’ sales tax collections will rebound once a new president is inaugurated…
— from the Town of Pagosa Springs 2025 Budget; Introduction
Here are few budget numbers to consider, as we make our way through the second quarter of 2025… knowing that the future is uncertain at the local, state and federal levels… the primary uncertainty, at the moment being the Congressionally authorized spending in the federal budget that the current administration is unlawfully redirecting.
Our municipality:
Town of Pagosa Springs
Projected Revenues, $14.7 million
Projected Expenditures, $16.8 million
Town Sanitation District
Projected Revenues: $1.8 million
Projected Expenditures: $1.7 million
The Town government represents, politically, only about 15% of the community’s permanent population — about 1,600 residents — but sees itself, in general, as serving the entire Archuleta County community and as making spending decisions with the rest of the county’s 12,000 residents in mind.
While looking up the budget numbers above, I was struck by the fact that neither of the Town’s two 2025 budgets — the Town and the Sanitation District — included the expenses involved in replacing the downtown infrastructure underneath Highway 160 during the current highway reconstruction. That seemed odd to me, because we’ve known about this project for three or four years, and knew that the Town would be replacing underground utilities and doing other upgrades to the downtown landscape.
I would have thought that the Town would have at least some ‘placeholder’ estimates built into the 2025 budget.
We learned recently that the Town’s upgrades will cost about $7.7 million… slightly more than half the total revenues the Town expects to collect this year.
If my own household budget estimates were off by 35%, I’m not sure how I would manage to pay my bills. I would probably have to take out a big loan. Which is apparently what the Town is now considering. Or multiple big loans?
But this might not be a great time to be borrowing money.
Here’s an indicator regularly publish by CNN.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is one way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The theory is based on the logic that excessive fear tends to drive down share prices, and too much greed tends to have the opposite effect.
That’s just a theory, of course. But there’s some evidence supporting it. A stock market that has been losing value for the past four weeks, for example.
And the average rate on a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.83% in the week ending April 17, up from 6.62% a week ago, mortgage financing provider Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s the largest one-week jump in mortgage rates in nearly a year.
Our County government:
Projected Revenues, $50.0 million
Projected Expenditures, $53.3 million
We note here that both the Town and County governments have proposed to spend more money in 2025 than they expect to collect.
I find the Archuleta County budget document for 2025 to be a meager source of information. In particular, I was unable to find the information about the County’s current debt burden, which I believe is required to be an essential part of a legal government budget. The previous year’s County budget includes a dedicated section called “Debt”. That section is missing from the 2025 budget as presented on ClearGov.com
Nor was there a public discussion about County debt during the budget presentation in December. Looking at the 2024 budget, it appears that the County is paying about $800,000 annually on the ‘Certificates of Participation’ (COPs) used to fund the County Detention Center, after the voters refused to approve a bond issue for that facility.
As noted previously in this editorial series, our current County commissioners are now considering the use of COPs to fund a new administration building.
Also previously noted, the Archuleta School District will hold a meeting of the Master Plan Advisory Committee (MPAC) next Monday, April 21. It’s a public meeting.
Possibly, the MPAC group will vote on a recommendation at this meeting? In my humble opinion, the group is not nearly ready to make such a recommendation.
Disclosure: I’m one of the volunteers serving on the Master Plan Advisory Committee, but this editorial series reflects only my own opinions and not necessarily the opinions of any other Committee members.
ASD Budget for the current school year:
Projected Revenues, $23.8 million
Projected Expenditures, $21.2 million
ASD conducted a series of public meetings last year, prior to convening the MPAC group, to get ‘feedback’ from the community around the idea of abandoning the existing Middle School and the existing Elementary School and getting the voters to approve higher property taxes for new school buildings. Curiously, none of the public presentations included information about how much it costs to build a new school building in 2025.
The MPAC group was finally given an estimate for the cost, last month.
A new middle school or a new elementary school: maybe $75 million. A combined K-8 facility: maybe $125 million.
During the March meeting of the MPAC group, many of the committee members expressed support for the idea of a combined K-8 facility. That is, the $125 million project.
For some reason, the committee was not told that ASD has a limit on how much it can legally borrow. I believe that limit is $115 million.
Also, as previously mentioned in this editorial series, the alternative to abandoning existing buildings and building new buildings is — of course — to better maintain and upgrade the existing buildings, all of which have new roofs (an expensive maintenance item) and new security enhancements.
It would appear, to judge from the 2024-2025 ASD budget, that the district is spending $2.6 million less than they are collecting.
It might seem that this extra money could be applied to necessary maintenance? And upgrades?
But I’m just a journalist, who wonders about things.