When I was a college student, after my senior year I remember being invited to both the 1992 Democratic National Convention in New York City, and the 1992 Republican National Convention in Houston.
Those who know me probably aren’t too surprised at my bipartisanship.
But I admit to being a little surprised at the choices of host cities. After all, New York was solid Democratic Party territory, while Texas was a safe bet for the Republicans. Shouldn’t the Democrats have chosen a city from a swing state, as they did in 1988 in Atlanta, Georgia? Republicans chose New Orleans in 1988; four years later, the Democrats flipped that state to their column, and narrowly took Georgia as well. The GOP should’ve chosen either of them instead of a city of the Lone Star State. Where you host your convention should matter for votes.
Four years ago, the Democrats located their convention in my birth city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, which was a smart move, as they were able to retake that state that they lost in 2016. Republicans were kind of all over the place in 2020; it wasn’t clear if they were holding it in Charlotte, Jacksonville or Washington, DC. But this year they got smarter, and copied the Democrats, hosting it in Milwaukee. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding their convention in Chicago. I know it’s a big place, but isn’t Illinois firmly in the Democratic Party camp? Shouldn’t they have chosen Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, or even Atlanta again?
To answer that question, I had a few LaGrange College student volunteers: Ema Turner and Ryan Avin, plus a college graduate (Katie Hughes) give up some of their summer vacation to collect data on convention locations, states and Electoral College votes; this is what we found.
Republicans have been better about picking convention cities to help deliver the state to them. In 42 party conventions going back to 1856, the party has won 25 of those states, for a 59.5 percent success rate. Democrats have only won 23 states in the November election from the 48 political conventions where they have held their meetings since the 1831-1832 electoral cycle, for a 47.9 percent success rate.
However, there are good reasons to host a convention in Chicago, as I noted in an article for Raw Story. The party that uses Chicago as a convention site has prevailed in 56 percent of those cases. Moreover, in the 12 most recent conventions where two parties did not host their convention in the same city (as both parties did in 1972), the party that located their convention in a bigger city won 58.3 percent of the time in the Fall Election, a good omen for the Democrats in 2024, as Chicago is bigger than Milwaukee, something this Packer Backer hates to admit.
A brand-new college student headed to Furman University, Jack Baker, conducted research for us from mid-July that focuses on recent articles showing that Republicans seem content with their candidate and were more enthusiastic about their chances. While Democrats like their candidate, they seemed to be hoping for one who lacked weaknesses exposed during the debate. What a difference a month makes. Democrats seem more enthusiastic about their presidential and vice-presidential candidates, while GOP supporters seem dismayed that their candidate seems more obsessed with personal attacks and lashing out, instead of focusing on the issues and policies.
We’ll get a second debate on September 10, and a vice-presidential debate later in the election season, to see how the candidates explain their positions to the American people.
John A. Tures is Professor of Political Science and Coordinator of the Political Science Program at LaGrange College, in LaGrange, Georgia.