We’re sharing an op-ed this morning, contributed by Dr. John Tures, coordinator of the Political Science Program at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. In his article, Dr. Tures looks at some statistical correlations between government spending on mental health services — in Red and Blue states — and the numbers of mass shooting events in those same states, and concludes that a state’s mental health spending is not closely related to the number of mass shootings in that particular state.
The point being that — based on available public data — we probably can’t ‘spend’ our way out of social gun violence, by focusing on mental health treatments.
I’ve complained recently, in an editorial series, “A Love/Hate Relationship with Data”, that our modern perception of reality is greatly influenced by data… and data, if you look closely, is often inaccurate or misleading.
It’s bad enough when an unsupported opinion is misleading; it’s worse, when we make what we think is a sensible decision based on “bad data”.
Over the weekend, I found a couple of articles online, discussing mass shootings.
In an article dated May 9, in USA Today, reporter Grace Hauck wrote:
In a given year, the U.S. typically sees six mass shootings in a public place, and the most the country has ever witnessed was 10 in a year, according to James Alan Fox, a professor at Northeastern University who has studied mass killings for 40 years.
The massacre at Premium Outlets in Allen, Texas, on Saturday already marks the sixth public mass killing of 2023 − about one-third of the way through the calendar year. That’s not a good sign, Fox said.
Six public mass killings since January 1. You can visit the website maintained by Dr. Fox, here.
A careful reader will notice that Dr. Fox is talking about something rather specific. “Mass killings in a public place”.
Not mass killings, in general… but rather, mass killings in a public place.
Some mass killings, this year, have taken place in non-public places. Inside a home, for example… as when eight members of a single family, consisting of three adults and five children, were fatally shot in their home on January 4, 2023. Authorities identified the father, Michael Haight, as the perpetrator. He died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound after fatally shooting his family members.
Another set of data, concerning mass shootings during 2023 is available online, at the Wikipedia website. It notes that organizations may define a “mass shooting” differently. Some definitions require multiple people to be killed, in order to qualify. Other definitions include people who are injured, but not necessarily killed.
- Stanford University MSA Data Project: three or more persons shot in one incident, excluding the perpetrator(s), at one location, at roughly the same time. Excluded are shootings associated with organized crime, gangs or drug wars.
- Mass Shooting Tracker: four or more persons shot in one incident, at one location, at roughly the same time.
- Gun Violence Archive/Vox: four or more shot in one incident, excluding the perpetrators, at one location, at roughly the same time.
- Mother Jones: three or more shot and killed in one incident at a public place, excluding the perpetrators. This list excludes all shootings the organization considers to be “conventionally motivated” such as all gang violence and armed robberies.
- The Washington Post: four or more shot and killed in one incident at a public place, excluding the perpetrators.
- ABC News/FBI: four or more shot and killed in one incident, excluding the perpetrators, at one location, at roughly the same time.
- Congressional Research Service: four or more shot and killed in one incident, excluding the perpetrators, at a public place, excluding gang-related killings and those done with a profit-motive.
So we understand, with this kind of variation in the definition of “mass shooting”, the data is going to be… well, unreliable, you might say… based merely on those differences.
That same Wikipedia page provided links to the mass shootings it listed. It includes “public” and “non-public” mass shootings, and appears to use a definition similar to the Stanford University definition.
While Dr. Fox and USA Today are reporting “The massacre at Premium Outlets in Allen, Texas, on Saturday already marks the sixth public mass killing of 2023…” we understand that Dr. Fox defines a “public mass killing” as “four or more people killed.” If a dozen people are shot, but only three killed, it’s not a “public mass killing”.
So we have “mass killings” and “mass shootings”. Not necessarily the same thing.
Here are the shootings listed in Wikipedia that appear to have happened in a “public” setting. I am including restaurants, bars, hospitals, sidewalks, and parking lots as “public” spaces.
For the month of May, so far.
- May 14, Augusta, GA: Two people were killed and three injured after an argument at a motorcycle gathering.
- May 11, Indianapolis, IN: One person was killed and at least three people were injured at a Steak ‘n Shake.
- May 7, Thorton, CA: A drive-by shooting at a neighborhood gathering killed one person and wounded three.
- May 7, Columbia, MO: A man opened fire in the morning, killing one person. Four others were injured, including the suspect.
- May 7, Redwood City, CA: Four men and one 16-year-old were injured while drinking on a sidewalk.
- May 6, Allen, TX: A Dallas man opened fire at Premium Outlets mall, killing eight people and injuring seven others.
- May 6, Columbus, OH: A person opened fire early in the morning, injuring nine people on the street.
- May 5, San Diego, CA: A man was killed and three wounded in a drive-by shooting outside a recreation center.
- May 5, Natchez, MS: Two people were killed and at least two others injured in a shooting in a parking lot.
- May 5, Vicksburg, MS: Four people were injured during a shooting at Jacques’ Bar (a night club).
- May 5, St. Louis, MO: Two people were killed and two injured in a shooting on Cherokee Street.
- May 5, Ocean Springs, MS: One person was killed and six wounded at a restaurant during a Cinco de Mayo party.
- May 5, Athens, GA: One man was killed and three people wounded after a dispute outside a bar.
- May 3, Atlanta, GA: One woman was killed and four other women were injured after someone fired inside a Northside Hospital facility.
Based on the list above, I count 9 “public mass shootings” here in America, just between May 1 and May 6. USA Today and Dr. James Alan Fox do not count all of these events in their data. “Mass killings” doesn’t correlate very closely with the incidents listed in the Wikipedia website, which shows 14 “public mass shootings” this month.
27 mass shootings so far this month, if we include the “non-public” incidents.
Is it part of someone’s agenda… to make this problem appear less serious than it might actually be?