As Russia and the United States prepare to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there’s a notable absence: Ukraine, which was purposely sidelined from negotiations. History shows that’s a really bad idea, which contributed to losses in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
In 1972, North Vietnam’s “Easter Offensive” turned into a disaster for the invaders. Four years after the Tet Offensive, they were no closer to taking South Vietnam than they were in 1968. But all along, there were secret meetings between the National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger and the North Vietnamese negotiator Le Duc Tho outside the Paris Peace Talks.
As PBS reported, “Kissinger assured the North that their troops would be able to remain in the South after the cease-fire. Kissinger also backed down on the U.S. support of the Thieu regime by agreeing to an electoral commission made up of neutralists, Viet Cong and members of the Saigon government that would oversee the political settlement in the South. In return, the North withdrew its condition of Thieu’s removal, and agreed the future flow of Vietnamese troops to the South would stop.”
While there was one key positive development, the “simultaneous withdrawal of U.S. troops and freedom for American POWs,” the rest of the secret deal with North Vietnam was a disaster. South Vietnamese President Thieu was blindsided by the deal, never having been consulted during the secret negotiations, which left his enemy in a much better position of power. According to PBS, “[Nixon] promised Thieu $1 billion in military equipment that would give South Vietnam the fourth largest air force in the world and assured Thieu that the United States would re-enter the war if North Vietnam did not abide by the peace.”
North Vietnam ignored the terms of the treaty, launched an all-out attack on South Vietnam in 1975, and overthrew the country. One of my best friends in graduate school was a South Vietnamese refugee. I met many South Vietnamese families in Washington, DC. The political negotiators won Nobel Prizes, but the suffering of those who fled or were left behind cannot be ignored, a dark moment in history.
You’ve probably heard the phrase “Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.” Well, that’s exactly what the U.S. government did in early 2020.
In that “Doha Deal,” we again sidelined the Afghan government that we had built and stabilized, from the negotiations. We cut a deal with the Taliban, the same criminal terrorist organization that gave Osama Bin-Laden a base for al-Qaeda, where they could coordinate 9/11 and other attacks. We forced the Afghans to release prisoners, swelling the ranks of the Taliban fighters. And we committed to withdraw all U.S. forces and allies. That horrible agreement paved the way for the Taliban to overthrow the Afghan government, producing the chaotic withdrawal, deaths, and like Vietnam, left thousands behind. Biden was no more responsible for this disaster than Ford was for South Vietnam.
What did America get from this Doha Deal? In 2020, we won a promise by the Taliban not to let their country be a base for Al-Qaeda. Even that one “concession” was violated by the Taliban. We know because in 2022, we found the leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Kabul. The U.S. used a drone strike to kill this co-conspirator of the 9/11 attacks during the Biden Administration.
Given that the current administration was in charge in February of 2020, we all need to make sure they don’t drop the ball again, leading to Putin’s likely massacre of Ukraine in any sort of “deal” that comes out between our President and the ex-KGB Agent that could replicate Stalin’s pre-WWII holocaust of the Ukrainian people, called Holodomor.
Hopefully enough Republicans will join Democrats to say Ukraine deserves a seat at the table, and a just peace that permits NATO membership, so Putin doesn’t do this all over again in a year or two breaking his promises, just like the North Vietnamese and Taliban did.