Ever since Donald Trump began making threats to use economic force to annex Canada, people have speculated how such a move, if successful, would alter American politics.
I have found that whether you absorb Canada as a single state, or split them by their provinces, annexation would likely be a windfall for the Democratic Party.
Politico has already run the calculations to determine what would happen if Canada entered as a single state. “The answer, our analysis found, is that Democrats would benefit significantly, with the new great state of Canada serving as a kind of second California, a massive blue state that would hold dozens of House seats and create a huge Democratic advantage in the Electoral College.” As for the Senate, Canada would only narrow the 53-47 seat advantage to 51-49. But the 46 House seats for Canada would definitely benefit the Democrats, especially since absorbing all of these seats would drain the power of the GOP to make it to 435 (or 538 in the Electoral College). And Politico cited a poll showing 64 percent of Canadians supporting Harris, with 21 percent liking Trump, and 15 percent being unsure.
But Canada is a federation of 13 provinces, and not a monolithic “state.” So I examined what would happen in each province. Moreover, I doubt most states would stand for losing apportionment.
“In total, 31 states would lose seats to Canada. California would lose six; Texas would lose four; Florida would lose three; New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina would lose two each; and two dozen would each lose one seat,” Politico’s Jonathan Lai writes. And I doubt that many states would want to lose all of those representatives.
Instead of fixing the count at 435 House of Representatives and 100 Senators (and 538 Electoral College votes), I relaxed that number, calculating the equivalent of each province to a state of comparative size population. So Ontario, a province of 14 million, would get 19 Electoral College votes, close to what Pennsylvania gets. Quebec, with 8.5 million, gets 13 E.C. votes, just like Virginia. This goes on with British Columbia (9, like South Carolina), Alberta (8, like Oregon), Manitoba (4, like New Hampshire), Saskatchewan (4, like Rhode Island). All others under a million people would get three, just like Delaware, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
I then calculated the percentage of Senate seats that would go for the GOP, based upon how many votes the Canadian Conservative Party got in the 2019 election. Alberta and Saskatchewan were the only ones that had a majority of the people go for the Conservative Party. Manitoba went 46% Conservative Party, so I split that state one-to-one. That would give Republicans five more Senators. Unfortunately, the Conservative Party didn’t net more than 33 percent in any of the other 10 provinces and territories. That gives Democrats 20 additional senators, and a 67-58 advantage.
As for the House, I took percentages of the number of House seats the province-states would get, based upon Conservative Party numbers in 2019. I found that Republicans would pick up 18 House Seats (and even bent the averages for the GOP), but Democrats would garner 34 House seats, for a 249-233 majority.
You may claim this is an unfair measure, as there are multiple non-Conservatives parties (Liberal Party… New Democratic Party… Bloc Quebecois). All support policies well to the left of the GOP, as you’ll see in the links. Moreover, there’s no guarantee that every Conservative Party vote would go for the GOP. After all, Trump’s Canadian buddy Kevin O’Leary dropped out of a failed bid for Conservative Party leadership.
Whether you bring Canada in as one state, or 13… both scenarios benefit the Democrats, who might quietly support Trump’s grandiose plan… daring Republicans to try and talk him out of it.