This story by by Allen Best appeared on BigPivots.com on June 4, 2024. We are sharing it in two parts.
Two documents released earlier this year speak to the potential role of geothermal in helping Colorado achieve its energy transition goals in the next 15 to 25 years.
In “Colorado Clean by 2040,” an analysis commissioned by the Colorado Energy Office, the consultant Ascend Analytics found that geothermal was among the most likely technologies able to help Colorado achieve a near emissions-free electricity system by 2040 even as demand for electricity grows by 50%.
One modeled scenario sees geothermal achieving 2% of total electrical production by 2034 and growing to 10% by 2040.
The updated Colorado Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Roadmap 2.0 that was released this winter gave a sneak preview of what was announced in late May. It said the program has received 42 applications for over $13 million in requests and called out the initiatives proposed by mountain communities for thermal energy networks.
The Roadmap said this round of grant applications “highlights the strong emergence of the geothermal market, providing benefits of substantial energy savings over the lifetime of these investments, enhanced grid resiliency, and supporting decarbonization of our heating and power sectors.”
One thing that has puzzled me has been where this growing prominence for geothermal has come from. And very specifically, why did Polis choose geothermal as a place in the energy field where he applied his gubernatorial prestige… and time, too? In addition to the various forums sponsored by the Western Governors’ Association, Polis visited Colorado Mesa University and then added a tour of Utah projects.
I assumed that one of his staff members had advised Polis that this was a good technology to get behind. I interviewed him at one point, and I left thinking that this was not something he had personally embraced. (But I also think I didn’t have the best questions).
I have now been told twice that no, I have it backwards. For whatever reason, Polis had concluded this was a technology he wanted to encourage. And you have to respect his judgment. After all, he’s a guy who figured out how to accumulate $400 million in wealth, at least according to reports I have read.
Other things have been happening, too. For instance, Fervo Energy had raised $244 million as it builds a 400-megawatt project near Delta, Utah. Sarah Jewett, vice president of strategy at Fervo Energy, told a noon-hour audience at the Colorado Rural Electric Association annual conference in October 2023 that the project in Utah had reduced drilling time significantly.
“The market for geothermal power is about $65 to $85 a megawatt hour. We’re finding that these projects can easily fit into that cost structure. Now we are finding there is a higher willingness to pay coming out of California because they’re in a little bit of dire straits, but we envision a world where we’re able to easily sell these projects $65 to $85 a megawatt hour.”
She talked about subsurface development, which is responsible for about 50% of the cost, and above-ground development costs behind the other half. These costs of subsurface work have been bending down, and her company thinks cost reductions can also be delivered above ground.
Her bottom line? Further cost reductions.
Afterward, I heard a Colorado state senator — the one probably most knowledgeable about this energy transition — exclaim to me: “Did you hear those numbers?!”
Utah State Sen. Nate Blouin may have been referring to this project when he was on a White House panel in late May devoted to transmission. Asked to summarize what made him excited as he looked into the future, he said it could be summarized in one word: Geothermal.
“Geothermal is the hottest thing in clean energy. Here’s why…” wrote Canary Media in a March posting.
That being said, Duane Highley, chief executive of Tri-State Generation and Transmission, described geothermal as still having significant cost, about on par with nuclear.
Might we someday also see housing developments in Colorado using district heating systems, such as can now found at Geos in Arvada and at Colorado Mesa University? That will be the real break-through. I have to think that will happen sooner, not later.
To get a full grasp of the diversity of these seeds in the state grants, see the full list here.
…But just a few more:
- Pueblo is to get $270,000 to support the development of geothermal heating and cooling at three new fire stations.
- The Urban Land Conservancy is to get $72,500 to study whether the existing hot-water heating loop (heated by natural gas) for 13 affordable housing buildings can be converted to geothermal at the Mosaic Community Campus located along Montview Boulevard in Denver.
- Rico, the town in southwestern Colorado between Telluride and Dolores, is to get $100,000 to study whether a thermal energy network could work. It has a hot springs on the edge of town, free to anybody who wants to tip his or her pinky into the warm water that now slops over into the Dolores River.
- In Boulder, Pearl and Foothills District Development is to get $100,000 to investigate application of an energy storage system in combination with air-source heat pumps and photovoltaic thermal hybrid collectors to balance seasonal loads.
- Snow Mountain Ranch workforce housing complex at the YMCA of the Rockies between Tabernash and Granby is to get $84,000.
- A Girl Scouts ranch near Bailey is to get $85,000.
- The amount of natural gas burned to keep sidewalks free of snow and ice is a concern in Vail. It takes a lot of natural gas. The town is to get $250,000 to explore moving forward on a project that involves the public library, Dobson Arena, and the wastewater treatment plant.
- The Steamboat Springs Redevelopment Authority is to get not quite $250,000 to study a geothermal heating district as part of the redevelopment of the Gondola Transit center. Can this also support the heating for nearby multi-family, mixed-use and commercial buildings? Snowmelt is also a target, as it would otherwise pose a demand for up to 4.6 megawatt of electricity at peak times.
- In Carbondale, the Clean Energy Economy for the Region has been working for some time on an advanced thermal energy system using an Ambient Temperature Loop. Test drilling was done last autumn. Aspen and Pitkin County see geothermal being part of their airport redevelopment plans.
- Eagle County is also to get $250,000 to push along a project that its buildings’ officials have been thinking about and investigating for several years. It’s still a heavy lift to make the economics work, says one official, but one that is now a little closer.
- In Southwest Colorado, the Florida Mesa Geothermal Project near Durango is to develop an enhanced geothermal system that will blend existing coalbed methane recovery infrastructure with advanced technology and data analytics. It is projected to offset 20 megawatts of electricity demand but scale up to 55 megawatts.
- The University of Colorado-Boulder will get $665,000 to conduct feasibility and design studies for two interrelated geothermal projects exploring the co-generation of geothermal electricity and heat. These projects could enable on-site geothermal electricity production that co-generates heat for a thermal energy network connecting more than 12 million square feet of conditioned space across the university’s three campuses in Boulder.
- A company, Geothermal Technology, is to get $250,000, to identify hot sedimentary aquifers suitable for electrical production in northeastern Colorado’s Denver-Julesberg Basin.
All this, to me, says a lot of exciting exploration, a lot of noodling. How much of this money will come to something?
I’d guess half these projects will go forward. Somebody close to the program thinks expects only a few to fall off and most will go forward. The goal of the grants is to leverage, to help excite private and other capital with the interest not only of reducing emissions but producing long-term cost savings.
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