“I don’t believe we will ever get Jefferson County back to the level of births — or the level of kids — they had in 2001,” Gardner said…
— Colorado State Demographer Elizabeth Gardner, quoted on ChalkbeatColorado.org in 2022.
In this editorial series, I’m going to be discussing the May 17 public meeting of the Pagosa Peak Open School (PPOS) Board of Directors. I currently serve on that volunteer board, but the opinions expressed are mine, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the rest of the Board.
I mentioned in Part One that my daughter, Ursala Hudson, has served as Board President for the Pagosa Charter School Initiative beginning in 2015, and then subsequently, as Board President for PPOS. She resigned from that post at the May 17 meeting — to pursue other interests — and Board member Lawrence Rugar has been elected President.
At that meeting, the Board also elected a new Treasurer — Pamela Meade — and a new Vice President — Jesse White.
I also mentioned in Part One, that here in Colorado, public schools face a bit of a challenge when designing their annual budgets.
Public schools and school districts must submit an annual budget each year in June, by estimating their income and expenses for the next fiscal year (which starts on July 1).
But annual school funding for the state is set by the General Assembly during the winter and spring legislative session. So schools typically don’t know what next year’s funding allocation will be until the first week in May.
Colorado’s 2023 School Finance Act (SB23-287) was approved on May 1, investing $665 million more in total program funding than the current year, and raising the statewide average of ‘per pupil’ funding to about $10,600 per pupil.
The Act reduced the Budget Stabilization Factor by $180 million, mapping out a course to completely eliminate the Budget Stabilization Factor by the 2024-2025 school year. This so-called “BS Factor” allowed the state, over the past decade, to avoid the full funding level established by the voters in 2000, when they passed Amendment 23 to reverse a steady decline in school funding during the 1990s.
SB23-287 also creates a task force to examine Colorado’s public school financing system, and make recommendations to improve the school finance formula to make it “more equitable and student-centered”. An additional study will explore what it takes to adequately provide a free and uniform public education for students in Colorado.
But the ‘per pupil’ amount is only a part of the complicated budget puzzle for schools and districts. Because the funding is tied to enrollment — paid out per enrolled student — schools and districts don’t know how much money they will have until after the students are counted in October.
This delay in establishing the revenue amount has been especially problematic since the COVID crisis. When Governor Jared Folis ordered schools closed in March 2020, teachers and administrators scrambled to set up systems for online instruction. Those systems were necessarily improvised to a large degree.
Additionally, parents were expected to remain at home with their isolated students, and assist with lessons. For many parents, this was the first time they’d had a chance to experience, ‘up close and personal’, the American version of mass education. Except it was probably the worst possible version, considering the improvised nature of the online teaching systems.
Apparently, a sizable number of those parents decided that public school education wasn’t providing a first-rate learning experience?
Three of Colorado’s largest school districts — Denver, Jeffco, and Aurora — have been closing schools and downsizing. Where did the children go?
Last November, the staff at Chalkbeat Colorado looked for explanations for the declining enrollment numbers. Fewer children being born, for example?
That is, in fact, an apparent trend in six of Colorado’s Front Range communities, as shown in the following graphic:
Other factors? Students switching to homeschooling? Increased enrollment in private schools? Families leaving due to lack of housing?
The situation in Archuleta County is not quite so dramatic. I’ve not heard any talk about school closures, although the district has seen a slight drop in enrollment following the COVID shutdowns. In 2019, Archuleta School District had an enrollment of 1,742; current enrollment is about 1,678.
Pagosa Peak Open School has managed to maintain a fairly consistent enrollment through the COVID crisis, but the Board is planning for possible enrollment challenges in the future.
When I look at the number of births in Archuleta County since 2000, the trend seems to be slightly downward, but the relatively small number (around 120 per year) makes it difficult to make an accurate guess. Meanwhile, the net migration into the community hit a high point in 2021, with about 384 new residents… close to the 424 net new residents who arrived in the year 2000… and very different from the net loss of 192 residents in 2009.
The increase in per pupil funding for next year was probably relatively easy for Denver legislators to support.
Here in Archuleta County, a major source of public school funding is local property tax. As many people are aware, the notices of real estate valuation were mailed out recently, and it appears that values overall increased by perhaps 40% — based on real estate sales in 2020 through 2022. That suggests that property taxes collected by the Archuleta School District — and by the County government, the Fire District, and all the other tax-supported entities in the community — will increase by about 40% next year.
The same kind of property valuation increases were seen in many other Colorado communities.
If that’s the way things play out, the Colorado government and our school districts should have little trouble acquiring an additional $665 million more in total program funding next year.
In fact, that increase might be modest, considering a likely 40% increase in property taxes paid in communities like Pagosa Springs.
But of course, increased property taxes — while perhaps making life more pleasant for local governments — will make life even less affordable for working families in Pagosa Springs.
According to a recent Region 9 Economic Development District survey, Pagosa Springs is already the least affordable place to live in southwest Colorado.
Especially if you have kids?
Read Part Three…