It is interesting that 65% of homes purchased in Pagosa Springs do not include a mortgage, and a love/hate relationship with data may exist in the local real estate marketplace.
As a simple example, is the debate over whether an “AirBNBust” situation may exist due to the oversaturation in the local supply of AirBNB short-term rental (STR) units.
Congrats to AirBNB achieving record profits due a rapid growth in revenue from a record number of available short-term rental (STR) units. Unfortunately, when supply growth is substantially higher than demand growth, the data reveals what must happen to average occupancy rates, and what happens with average daily rental rates.
For those interested to listening to NPR, click here for a very interesting discussion between Jamie Lane (V.P. of Research at AirDNA), and City Council members of Steamboat Springs, CO.
On October 18, 2022 Jamie Lane (V.P. of Research at AirDNA) tweeted that — of the 1.2 million AirBNB listings in the U.S. — sixty-two percent (62%) of new listings have been added since 2020. Look at the huge wedge in the upper right corner — light green dark green, and dark blue — in listings driving up STR supply in the last three years.
Redfin is now reporting that Mortgage-rate locks for second homes is down fifty-two percent (52%) from pre-pandemic levels (on a seasonally adjusted basis). Mortgage-rate locks for second homes are now at
their lowest level since February 2016.
As a comparison, Mortgage-rate locks for primary homes are down Thirteen percent (13%).
I look forward to monitoring what local Realtors have to share on whether Median Home Prices will continue to decline from the peak (in 2022), and Median Home Prices will continue to decline year-over-year during the spring selling season in Archuleta County.
Hopefully improved and more affordable housing inventory is coming, as more STR units convert to long-term rental inventory, or STR units get sold (at reduced prices) to local residents in urgent need of housing that is more in line with what local wage incomes can support.
Given most STR units are owned by out-of-town landlords this would be welcome data to see. Another example of the love/hate
relationship with data that may exist in the local real estate marketplace depending on whether you are a local resident… an out-of-town private investor… a local Realtor profiting from selling real estate… or a local resident profiting from providing property management services for local STR inventory.