Do voters feel like Archuleta County already has enough ‘financial resources’ to do a good job?
Well, that depends on how you structure your voter survey.
Just such a structured survey was conducted earlier this month by Magellan Strategies on behalf of some elected government officials in Pagosa Springs — namely, the Archuleta Board of County Commissioners (Alvin Schaaf, Ronnie Maez and Warren Brown) and the Pagosa Springs Town Council (Shari Pierce, Maddie Bergon, Mat deGraaf, Matt DeGuise, Gary Williams, Brooks Lindner and Jeff Posey.)
I have a slight familiarity with community surveys, speaking as a volunteer board member for Pagosa Housing Partners (PHP). PHP has conducted two community-wide surveys over the past three years, seeking to provide some believable numbers about Pagosa’s current housing crisis for our elected and appointed leaders. (You can read about the most recent survey on the PHP website.)
The PHP surveys made no attempt to influence the answers given by the respondents. We simply wanted honest answers, from honest people.
Magellan Strategies took a rather different approach, because they were not merely looking for honest answers. The survey developed and implemented by Magellan was carefully designed to discover the best way to ‘market’ a proposed $6.5 million tax increase, to voters who might normally be resistant to giving more money to a government they don’t trust.
We know, with some certainty, that the 1,081 respondents who participated in the Magellan survey generally distrust the Archuleta County government, because Magellan asked that very question near the beginning of the survey:
Only about one-quarter of the 1,081 respondents said they thought the Archuleta County government is fiscally responsible.
At the beginning of the survey.
But this wasn’t just a survey. This was a marketing tool. The goal wasn’t merely to find out what people thought about a proposed tax increase. The goal was to change the way people thought about the proposed tax increase.
It’s all in how you ask the questions.
At the beginning of the survey, the respondents were also asked if they thought the Archuleta County government already has sufficient financial resources to provide the necessary services to our community. A majority in every identified group answered, “Yes”.
The groups that felt most strongly about the adequacy of the County’s financial resources were “Men”, “Republicans”, and “Ages 18-44”.
At the beginning of the survey.
But some people minds can be changed, if you are good at marketing. Their minds can be changed, in fact, within the span of a few minutes, if you are good at marketing.
Once Magellan had allowed the respondents to voice their opinions about County government, the respondents were generously asked about their preferences. What County services did we think were most important? Because, after all, the County does provide some important services…
About 70% of the respondents chose either ‘Road Maintenance/Repairs” or “Infrastructure”. Magellan didn’t ask if we thought the County was providing these services efficiently; they merely asked if these services were important.
Then we were asked our preference, concerning tax increases. What kind of tax increase would we like most? Property tax? Or sales tax?
Three-quarters of the respondents picked “Sales Tax”.
I am personally fascinated by this question, and by the voter responses.
Considering that two-thirds of the voters surveyed generally do not trust the County government with their money, this question strikes me as being roughly equivalent to asking a convict, “How would you prefer to be executed? Firing squad, or hanging?”
How about “None of the above” as one of the choices?
“None of the above” would presumably have been the preferred choice for the two-thirds of the respondents. But as we have already suggested, this survey was not simply looking for honest answers; it was a marketing tool, for two governments seeking to get their hands on more tax money.
As should become more evident as we continue analyzing the survey.
The next question wasn’t just a question. It was the start of Magellan’s sales pitch.
These statements appear perfectly straightforward.
Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa Springs are considering a 1.5% sales tax increase ballot measure this November to generate an estimated $6.525 million in annual revenue that would be evenly split between the two governments. Therefore, the County and the Town would each receive $3.263 million annually.
A fairly accurate estimate based on recent tax collections. (Who knows what the future holds?)
A 1.5% sales tax increase would cost $1.50 on a $100 purchase. The total sales tax for Archuleta County is currently 6.9%. If this ballot measure is approved, the sales tax rate will change from 6.9% to 8.4%.
Also true. (We won’t go into the ‘per household’ amount… about $1,000 per year.)
If an election were being held today, would you vote yes and approve or vote no and reject a 1.5% sales tax increase to generate an estimated $3.263 million in new revenue for each Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa Springs?
A straightforward question.
How did the survey respondents answer the question?
I would conclude, from this survey response, that Archuleta County voters have a very complicated relationship with their local governments.
On the one hand, we generally don’t trust our County government to be fiscally responsible. We also generally believe our County government has sufficient resources.
But if our County asks us to increase our taxes by $6.5 million without telling us how the money will get spent, a slim majority of us are generally okay with that idea.
Especially, we are generally okay with that idea, if we are registered Democrats. Fully two-thirds of the Democrats surveyed by Magellan Strategies reported that they would likely vote “Yes” on a $6.5 million tax increase. A majority of Unaffiliated voters also reported a likely “Yes” vote.
Only among Republicans do we find a group willing to “Just Say No”.
One small detail that might be worth noting. According to Magellan Strategies, 24% of respondents would “Definitely” vote “No.” Only 23% of respondents would “Definitely” vote “Yes.”
But the sales pitch was just getting started.