TV meteorologist Mike Nelson on June 9 warned that Denver would be 10 degrees warmer than average. It was.
That same day, Eric Blank, chairman of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, wondered about regional heat waves in 2030, temperatures spiking 8 degrees above average for a full week. How well, he asked, could the electrical infrastructure of Colorado’s largest energy utility hold up?
Utility commissioners were engaged in what-iffing a model created to depict future trends. They regulate Xcel Energy, which sells more than 60% of the state’s electricity, and Black Hills Energy, also an investor-owned utility. Those utilities must periodically submit plans to show how they intend to meet demands.
This dance between regulators and utilities has become more complex in recent decades. Before, planning mostly meant ensuring enough generation to meet rising demand caused by Colorado’s population growth of 10% to 20% a decade and the expanding use for electricity.
Newer and more complex technologies are disrupting old models. Societal concerns have shifted. Xcel Energy’s resource planning now being reviewed by state utility regulators reflects those changes. State regulators are charged with protecting public interests.
“Today there are so many more options, so many other policy considerations,” says Erin O’Neill, the chief economist on the staff at the Public Utilities Commission.
“It’s not just about what costs the least. It’s about economic development and jobs — and, in the retirement of coal plants, the community impacts of just transition. Economics and low cost still matter. But there are many other considerations.”
Reducing greenhouse emissions ranks highest among priorities. Driven by the plummeting prices of renewables but also state policies, Xcel Energy and nearly all other Colorado utilities are on track to reduce emissions 80% by 2030. But decarbonizing electricity beyond 85% will be more challenging as all but one of Colorado’s coal plants closing during the next 9 years.
Storage looms as an overriding question for Xcel and other utilities. Lithium-ion batteries can store electricity for just a few hours. Utilities may need to draw on storage for days, such as during the mid-February cold snap, or as needed for heat waves of 2030—which don’t seem hypothetical at all after this week of century-mark temperatures.
Xcel is studying various alternatives, including hydrogen and molten salt. John Gavan, the utility commissioner from Paonia, wondered what-if Xcel’s customers had more storage in their own garages and driveways. Ford next year plans to begin selling an electric pickup, the Ford-150 Lightning, he pointed out. Ford says the batteries will be able to draw electricity from the grid or dispatch electricity to the grid.
In other words, the batteries could absorb electricity when the when the wind blows and the sun shines. Then, when demands on the grid surge or when renewable energy is sparse, the grid could draw on the battery of the pickups when supplies run low. The batteries will be large enough to meet needs of an average house for 10 days if demands are conservative—and provide electricity for other houses, too.
The Ford F150 — the model with a gas engine — last year was the top-selling model in metro Denver.
If Ford sells more than 100,000 of its F-150 Lightnings in Colorado during the next decade, Gavan said, that would create 7.5 megawatts of battery storage inside Colorado garages. “And we all know that cars and trucks are parked 95% of the time,” he added.
And if Colorado buys enough electric pickups and other vehicles, they could collectively provide 100 megawatts of storage, he added. That’s comparable with a small coal plant.
Demand for electricity will grow, because of electric cars but also replacement of natural gas in buildings. Rising temperatures will also cause spiking demand on summer afternoons.
Colorado has clearly been warming. When Mike Nelson and other meteorologists talk about normal, they are referring to the 30-year average. Every decade, it is revised to reflect the most recent 30 years. Denver’s average temperature was 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher for the new template of normals issued in May by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Precipitation had trended downward. Both trends mostly prevailed across Colorado.
As for the coming decade, the particulars can’t be predicted but rising temperatures can. It will get hotter.
Allen Best publishes the e-journal Big Pivots, which chronicles the energy transition in Colorado and beyond.