Ask anyone promoting masks and social distancing if they know their ass from a whole in the ground.
— Comment included in an email from a friend on December 1, 2020
In spite of some folks who sincerely believe that COVID-19 is an artificial hoax perpetrated on citizens by oppressive government agencies, our local public health district, San Juan Basin Public Health (SJBPH) continues to promote the idea that the pandemic is getting more and more serious as we move into winter. From this morning’s Pagosa Springs SUN newspaper:
As of Wednesday, 188 cases of COVID-19 had been reported among full-time Archuleta County residents since Nov. 1, making for a cumulative total of 257 cases since late March and pushing Archuleta County into Level Red: Severe Risk… As of Wednesday, Archuleta County remained in Level Orange: High Risk on the state’s COVID dial framework, but, late Wednesday it was announced that the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) is moving Archuleta County to Level Red to reduce community transmission and “slow a dramatic rise in cases that threatens our school learning models and our local economy.” …As of press time Wednesday, it was unknown what day the change will take effect.
Two “outbreaks” have been cited by SJBPH — one at the local Parts Plus store, and one at Pagosa Springs Elementary School.
On Tuesday evening, the Pagosa Springs Town Council had a long discussion (on ZOOM) about COVID and the local distribution of special funding to address the economic impacts on governments, businesses and families. Between the Town and County governments, a total of about $1.2 million in federal CARES money has been earmarked for the Archuleta School District, the Pagosa Springs Medical Center, local food banks, restaurants, local businesses and other organizations and groups. The Town and County agreed to share the $1.2 million on a 50/50 split — so about $600,000 each.
The reimburseable CARES funding can be used only for spending directly related to COVID expenses — masks, PPE, plexiglass shields, computer software related to online operations, improved internet service, and so forth. At Tuesday’s Council meeting, Town Manager Andrea Phillips noted that the Town has fully encumbered its $600,000 CRES allowance, but that the Town has since received an additional $73,000 in requests from local businesses and organizations. Did the Council want to take money out of its General Fund reserves to fund the additional applications?
The Council voted unanimously to spend up to $100,000 from reserves to address the added requests.
Mayor Don Volger then opened the COVID discussion to the public. We heard from local activists Greg Giehl and Bethany Cole, both questioning the wisdom of mask-wearing and the overall reality of the pandemic.
The reaction to the pandemic by state and local governments, over the past eight months, has been all over the board. Colorado Governor Jared Polis and his administration have been treading a middle ground, I think, allowing nearly all “essential” businesses to remain open, while mandating the wearing of face masks. But this health crisis is so complicated that it will be years before we understand why some communities have been slammed by hospitalizations and funerals, while others seem to have suffered only minimal health impacts. Until November, Archuleta County had appeared destined to sidestep the severe health impacts seen in many cities and towns. But COVID now seems to be spreading quickly through the community.
Eventually, as we look back, the overall economic impacts may be easier to measure… and perhaps just as dramatic. Or even more dramatic?
I ran across a report, published in the John Hopkins University online newsletter, written by a JHU professor and based on Centers for Disease Control (CDC) data. The published article was later pulled down off their website, because — the editor said — the information in the article was being misunderstood and was being used to support “dangerous inaccuracies”.
But the John Hopkins editor nevertheless provided a link to the original article, in the interests of transparency.
A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19
By YANNI GU | November 27, 2020
Editor’s Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.
We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.
The professor who wrote the report, Genevieve Briand, came to the conclusion that the US was seeing roughly the same number of deaths in 2020 as we were seeing in 2019 and 2018… except that this year, many of the deaths were being credited to COVID instead of to other causes.
That is, of course, an interesting question to research. But it’s easy to misunderstand data, and come to faulty conclusions. So I did a little bit of research on my own, on the CDC website, and found a discussion about “excess deaths” in the US.
The CDC estimates the number of death we should “expect” in any given week of the year, based on past statistical trends, and their estimates (according to the chart, below) appear to be adjusted year over year, based on past data.
Apparently, we hadn’t seen an “unexpected” number of deaths due to a contagious infection since January 2018. For the week ending January 13, 2018, for example, CDC had expected about 60,000 deaths, but calculated that week’s actual total at 68,000.
Then we saw the arrival of COVID… in March 2020. (You can click the chart above, to open a slightly larger version. You can also view the original chart on the CDC website.)
The highest number of “excess deaths” so far in 2020 — according to CDC — happened the week ending April 11, when CDC expected 56,000 deaths but counted 79,000 instead. Obviously, MOST of the deaths that week were “expected” and had nothing to do with COVID… and would have happened regardless. But it would appear that COVID has had a definite effect on the rate of people dying.
This data directly contradicts the graduate student report published by Genevieve Briand… but maybe isn’t being shared as widely?
When I added up the number of “excess deaths” that (statistically) wouldn’t have happened without the spread of the coronavirus, I got a total of about 322,000 deaths, above what past experiences would predict for 2020.
The most recent calculation of “COVID-related” deaths in the US is 270,000. The chart above suggests that the actual number might be closer to 322,000. That’s one out of 1,000 people in the US who may have died from COVID-related issues so far this year. Some “anti-mask” activists might believe that’s an insignificant number. I would disagree.
We also note that this happened during a time when many people, especially in big cities, were wearing masks and social distancing. We will never know what the death total might have been, had public health agencies and state governments done nothing at all to try and slow the spread.
It will be another year, unfortunately, until we see data on the number of suicides that took place during the shutdown.