On the one hand, the pandemic has been mind-numbingly boring. Our national entertainments — sports, theatre, live music, festivals — have been reduced to the size of iPad screens, if they exist at all. Parties and other social gatherings have largely gone by the wayside. Conversations around the office water cooler are non-existent. Bars are closed. Public government meetings via ZOOM have become notorious for horrible audio quality. Indoors meals at restaurants are now prohibited in many Colorado counties… as winter settles in.
We’re going crazy, from a lack of things to do. We’re going crazy from unemployment. We’re going crazy from a lack of human contact.
That is to say, some of us are going crazy. But some of our neighbors are so busy, they’re on the verge of burn-out. Healthcare workers, grocery store employees, school teachers…
…legislators?
As mentioned in Part One, Governor Jared Polis has announced his intention to call the Colorado legislature into a special session “in the near future, to provide immediate relief to the economic and financial hardships that many Coloradans are facing and could continue to face in the winter months.” One step in the direction of relief is a one-time payment of $375 to “over 435,000 Coloradans who have faced unemployment during the pandemic.” Folks who received a unemployment check at any time between March 15 and October 24 — and who also make less than $52,000 per years — can expect a $375 payment in early December. Governor Polis reportedly authorized this special payment after consulting legislative leaders.
The economic and financial hardships in Colorado promise to become more severe, starting tomorrow, Friday, November 20, when 15 counties will move from ‘Level Orange’ to ‘Level Red’ on the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment (CDPHE) ‘capacity dial.’ One of those counties is La Plata, immediately to the west of Archuleta County.
Some of the new restrictions La Plata County will face:
- No personal social gatherings are allowed. Only persons living in the same household may gather.
- Indoor restaurant dining is prohibited
- 8pm ‘Last Call’ for alcohol service
- Offices limited to 10% of capacity; other employees must work remotely
- Gyms limited to 10% capacity
- Indoor events prohibited
‘Level Red’ was previously the most restricted in terms of allowable social and business activities, but CDPHE this week added a more severe restriction level: ‘Level Purple’. At that level, nearly every type of business or social event is required to shut down, or happen ‘curb-side’.
Archuleta County will move from ‘Level Yellow’ to ‘Level Orange’ on Friday.
Some of the new restrictions Archuleta will face:
- Places of worship limited to 25% capacity (indoors or outdoors)
- Indoor restaurant dining limited to 25% of capacity
- 10pm ‘Last Call’ for alcohol service
- Offices limited to 25% of capacity; other employees must work remotely
- Gyms limited to 25% capacity
- Indoor events limited to 25% of capacity
You can download and print out the full chart of social and business restrictions here. Have your magnifying glass handy.
We note that these restrictions are assigned, not by local goernment boards, but by public health districts and state government officials. Some city and town governments, and some county governments, have chosen to put additional restrictions in place; that has not happened in Archuleta County.
From the November 17 press release from Governor Polis’ office:
The State is working closely with our local school districts to ensure that our children continue getting the in-person education they need, in a way that works best for each community and keeps people safe:
- Child care facilities, and Pre-K through 5th Grade Students: Encouraged to continue learning in-person.
- Middle School Students: Can do a hybrid version of in-person and remote learning or go completely remote.
- High School Students: Should be a hybrid or completely remote, and higher education should be remote, with limited in-person learning when necessary.
These are not easy steps to take. But, given the rapidly escalating trends in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, if we want to avoid even more drastic action, we must act now. So while the additional restrictions are painful, we hope they can accomplish two things:
- Prevent us from having to take even more drastic steps, such as an all-out shutdown; and
- Help our kids continue learning in person, or return to in person classrooms in the weeks and months ahead.
We recall that Governor Polis did order a complete closure of school buildings on March 23, last spring, and public schools did not re-open until August. Several school districts have already switched back to fully remote learning — including Durango 9-R.
According to the new CDPHE restrictions, childcare centers are allowed to remain fully open at every “Level”. “In-person” instruction is “suggested” for public K-12 schools at every Level except “Red” and “Purple”.
But what an impossible balancing act our leaders are involved in. Faced with a highly contagious but only occasionally fatal disease, there is no way our elected leaders and public health agencies can win.
On Monday, 73,014 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, according to CTP. This is the highest number of Covid-19 hospitalizations the nation has ever experienced, and is at least 10,000 more hospitalizations higher than its spring and summer peaks.
The US currently averages more than 3,500 new hospitalizations per day, CTP data shows.
The so-called ‘exponential growth’ of COVID cited by some media sources refers to a medical statistical theory about contagion, called the ‘R Naught’ — R0. Currently in the US, it appears that each infected person is spreading the disease to — on average — more than two other people. When each of those newly-infected persons also spreads the disease… with a few days, the infection can easily spread to over 100 people, starting with that single case.
This kind of exponential spread may be evident in other communities — including, possibly, some communities in Colorado — but are we seeing ‘exponential spread’ in Pagosa Springs?
Between the start of the pandemic in March, and the middle of October, we had seen about 62 confirmed cases in Archuleta County, total.
In the one month since, San Juan Basin Public Health has reported 56 new cases.
Exponential?