The popular Springs Resort, in the heart of Pagosa’s historical downtown, posted some information on its website last weekend:
As we continue to focus on the health and safety of our entire community The Springs Resort and Spa has made the decision to temporarily close the resort on March 22, with plans to reopen on April 7th, circumstances permitting.
We hope you will continue to connect with us online and on social media – www.facebook.com/SpringsResort. We strive to bring you Springs inspired wellness recommendations and feel hopeful that we will come through this stronger together.
Bath House and Soaking Pools: Closed until further notice
Pahgosa Spa: Closed until further notice
Entertainment/Events: Postponed until further notice
Food & Beverage: Closed until further notice
Also on March 22, the editor of the Singapore-based Straits Times, Warren Fernandez, posted a thoughtful essay about the future of the global economy, after the worst effects of the COVID-19 epidemic have subsided. The article is titled, “Cornonavirus: Grappling with a triple whammy global crisis.”
Well, to put it simply, the world is now facing a triple whammy of a crisis – on the health, economic and financial fronts.
As some of our readers may know, the tiny country of Singapore has been unusually successful in containing the medical epidemic, for the moment. But the economic/financial whammy might be another matter. He discusses the global attempts to “flatten the curve,” and the problems inherent therein.
Flattening the curve buys society time, which hopefully is used well to ramp up medical facilities, as well as to find a vaccine or a cure in a hurry. By doing so, more might receive critical care, medicines might make the effects of the illness less deadly, and vaccinations could help more people fend off the bug.
Yet, this also means that while the peak in numbers might be suppressed somewhat, and delayed, the outbreak would be spread out over a longer period.
In addition, the stronger the measures to press down the curve — think lock-downs; travel restrictions; closed schools, churches and mosques; shutdowns of bars and restaurants — the greater the impact on the economy, as social interaction and the business this generates dries up.
I ran across Mr. Fernandez’ article when I was doing a Google search for the term “triple whammy.”
The American slang term “whammy” — a term that originally implied a (perhaps supernatural) curse, hex or spell — apparently dates from the late 1930s. Here’s a reference from a sports article published in the Syracuse Herald Journal, October 1939:
Nobody would have suspected that the baseball gods had put the whammy on Myers and Ernie when the ninth opened…
The term was later made popular by cartoonist Al Capp, in his popular cartoon strip, “Li’l Abner”. Capp invented a character named “Evil-Eye Fleagle” with a unique and terrifying ‘evil eye.’ (When first introduced, the character’s name was spelled “Fleegle” but in later strips appeared as “Fleagle.”)
An ordinary “whammy,” as Fleagle called it, could stop a charging bull in its tracks. A “double whammy” could knock over a skyscraper… leaving Fleagle exhausted for the rest of the day. His dreaded “triple whammy” could melt a battleship — but would practically kill Fleagle in the process.
We’re now facing a global triple whammy. A health crisis. An economic crisis. A financial crisis.
From Mr. Fernandez’ op-ed:
A prolonged economic slump could also force a restructuring of companies and industries in ways we might not yet have imagined.
After months of being cooped up at home, will people want to rush out to eat and be merry, head back to the shops, cinemas and gyms, or seek to roam the world, as before? Or would they have grown enamored of the joys of online deliveries, streaming, and other new ways to stay happy and healthy?
Having been kept away from their offices, will workers long to return to the social chatter of water-coolers and pantries? Will they prefer those interminable meetings and long business lunches to working at home, with family and kids close at hand? Conversely, would bosses conclude that tele-working can be just as productive, requiring less expensive office space, less business travel, and — shudder the thought — a lower headcount?
But we’re also dealing, here in Pagosa Springs, with a slightly different kind of triple whammy.
Colorado Governor Jared Polis, in the interests of “social distancing”, has effectively shut down the state’s tourism industry, by (temporarily?) ordering the closure of most businesses that serve to make a community like Pagosa Springs tourist-friendly. Restaurants and coffee shops are allowed to serve take-out only; brewpubs and marijuana dispensaries are limited to curbside pick-up. Entertainment businesses are closed, as are hot springs venues.
From Colorado’s March 22 Public Health Order 20-14, “IMPLEMENTING FIFTY PERCENT REDUCTION IN NONESSENTIAL BUSINESS IN-PERSON WORK AND EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING”:
This order will be enforced to the greatest extent possible by all legal means. Failure to comply with this order is subject to the penalties contained in sections 25-1-114, C.R.S. including a fine of up to one thousand (1,000) dollars and imprisonment in the county jail for up to one year.
Then we have an ongoing oil crisis. Archuleta County produces very little in the way of oil or natural gas, but a sizable portion of our second-home owners and annual tourist visitors come from two oil-rich states: Texas and Oklahoma. We can be guaranteed that the visit from those two states will be reduced in the coming months, as the oil industry deals with reduced demand and Saudi Arabia’s current oil policies. Those two factors have created a global glut of oil, and prices are hovering around $25 a barrel, after being as high as $110 a barrel in early 2014.
Yesterday, Forbes magazine posted a story that began like this:
The prognosis for the oil patch just got worse.
The price of a barrel of crude oil could more than halve from current levels if the coronavirus pandemic isn’t brought under control. Plus global oil storage facilities could quickly get overwhelmed, analysts say.
Barclays explains as follows:
“[…] if the virus situation continues to worsen, as it has recently, oil prices could fall to the $10-15 range in the short term, barring a political intervention,” states a recent report from Barclays.
That would potentially put the price at less than half its recent price of around $28 for a barrel of Brent crude…
Those two factors — a temporarily shuttered tourism industry, and an oil crisis — would be, by themselves, a double whammy for Pagosa Springs.
But we’ve got one more whammy to consider.