For intrepid tourists and locals, this is in some ways a perfect time to enjoy these incredible destinations at their most unspoilt. But for the millions who depend on the income that international visitors bring, it’s a disaster… and one that is unlikely to let up any time soon…
— from the Quartz website, March 10, 2020
No doubt about it. We’re living through interesting times. Colorado governor Jared Polis declared a “state of emergency” yesterday, based on 17 confirmed cases of COVID-19.
“There will be more confirmed cases,” Governor Polis warned, but in a wonderfully calm voice. “We’re going to get through this together.”
“It’s important for me to say that, declaring a state of emergency does not mean that Colorado isn’t open for business, or recreation, or tourism. We are. Nor should this declaration cause more anxiety. In fact, quite the opposite…”
A regular Daily Post reader read me the riot act yesterday, expressing displeasure that a Pagosa Springs reporter would dare to write a multi-part editorial about COVID-19, and in particular, about the effects of this public health scare on global tourism. The media is blowing the situation all out of proportion, I was told, and frightening the public unnecessarily. Why did the Daily Post need to join the media circus?
I imagine this same reader will be equally unhappy if I bring up a possibly-related issue: a sudden and drastic decline in oil prices caused partly by political discord on the other side of the globe.
According to industry sources, 2020 will likely see a decline in demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products — possibly an unprecedented decline — due in part to travel restrictions in certain countries (China and Italy, for starters) and also due to decisions by individual tourists to cancel travel plans out of an abundance of caution, leading to reductions in scheduled airplane flights… fewer cruise ship bookings… and so on.
Even the Trump administration has warned people about setting foot on cruise ships.
Apparently, traveler are avoiding key tourist sites… like, for example, the Great Pyramids.
Even before the surprising announcement by Saudia Arabia, that it would be boosting oil production while lowering its prices, oil industry analysts were seeing a drop in demand due — it would appear — to the global COVID-19 turmoil.
Meanwhile, some folks are able to find humor in the current situation.
If only it were so simple, to survive a new virus making its way around the globe. And surviving the human side-effects can be just as challenging.
I had heard, from a couple of friends, about a shortage of toilet paper at our local City Market, and at Walmart, so I had to take a look for myself. A visit to Walmart on Monday confirmed the situation; the toilet paper aisle was nearly devoid of its essential products during my morning visit.
It would appear that over-consumption of toilet paper during a virus outbreak is an international tendency. From BBC.com:
Australian stores have seen a mad rush for toilet paper this week. The situation in the past 48 hours has unraveled so much there are also reports of people stealing from public loos.
Just what is going on, and why are people acting this way?
Australia’s chief medical officer Dr Brendan Murphy told parliament this week: “We are trying to reassure people that removing all of the lavatory paper from the shelves of supermarkets probably isn’t a proportionate or sensible thing to do at this time.”
Supermarkets Coles and Woolworths have stated there is plenty of stock, while the manufacturer of Kleenex toilet paper in the nation said it was now operating 24hr production lines to meet demand.
The government has said that the nation is well-prepared, and taking all active measures to contain the virus. Local cases of transmissions have been relatively isolated so far. However, the toilet-roll buying frenzy continues…
The ridiculous run on toilet paper is not unique to Australia or the US, however. A similar situation is being reported in other countries affected by COVID-19, such as Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong. Last month, armed robbers in Hong Kong stole pallets of the precious paper, following panic-induced shortages there.
But let’s leave the strange world of toilet paper hijackers, and focus on something more pertinent to small-town Pagosa Springs… namely, a possible upheaval in the local tourism industry. The economy here — an economy supported largely by tourists and retirees — faces a couple of challenges as we move into the summer of 2020. It’s not a completely unfamiliar situation, for any of our Daily Post readers who were living here in, say, 1987… at a time when the Pagosa economy depended heavily upon monetary infusions coming from Dallas and Houston and other Texas communities.
Following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, crude oil prices remained high as the newly-formed Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept a tight grip on supplies, thus controlling prices. By 1981, crude averaged about $39 a barrel — equal to about $120 per barrel in 2020 dollars. But prices began falling in March 1982 amid a decline in oil demand, as the US limped through a 15-month-long recession. The nation’s drilling rig count fell from a peak of more than 4,500 in late 1981 to a low of 663 in July 1986. Drilling rigs were torn apart and sold for scrap, at pennies on the dollar.
The New York Times wrote about a Houston dentist who reported an increase in teeth-grinding problems among the locals.
In 1987, Harris County, Texas, experienced 30,000 home foreclosures. By 1989, more than 225,000 workers had lost their jobs, and 130 Texas banks had failed.
The searing experience provided a lesson that some political, business and civic leaders took to heart: A region’s economy should not depend heavily on only one industry.
The Texas oil bust in Texas hit Pagosa Springs hard. Without the dollars flowing in from Texas tourism and second home owners, some businesses here failed, and homes went into foreclosure. The steady population growth that had begun in 1972 came to a virtual standstill, and working families moved away, to find employment elsewhere.
Fast forward to March, 2020. The Texas oil and gas industry has again been battered by a slide in prices that began in 2014. More than 170 North American oil producers and oil field services companies have gone bankrupt. Tens of thousands of oil and gas jobs have been lost.
And the worst may be yet to come.