As more cases of COVID-19 are discovered across the globe, the hospitality and overall economy are feeling the pinch, with the stock market plummeting and events across the globe being canceled or postponed…
— from HotelBusiness.com, March 6, 2020.
A Pagosa friend who just returned from a trip to California — to visit family — told me of her surprise, landing at the Denver International Airport and seeing only two people in the entire airport wearing face masks. She also wondered if face masks are actually effective, in the first place…
A total of 12 presumptive cases of COVID-19 were reported for Colorado this morning, so far none of them fatal. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) is posting daily totals on their website. The presumptive cases do not necessarily reflect the number of “people” but rather the number of “completed tests.” The 12 cases are scattered across seven counties: Denver (4 cases) Douglas (3 cases) Eagle (2 cases) Arapahoe, El Paso, Summit, and Larimer counties (1 case each).
You can visit the CDPHE website here.
I’m using the word ‘presumptive’ because COVID-19 testing is still in the “testing” stage, and might be generating false positives, and false negatives. (CDPHE also uses the word ‘presumptive’ in their press releases.)
These totals are in stark contrast to — for example — Italy, a country approximately the same size as Colorado (Italy: 116,000 square miles v. Colorado: 104,000 square miles) but much more heavily populated (Italy: population 60.5 million v. Colorado: population 5.7 million). The Italian government has essentially quarantined three regions of the country — limiting travel to, from, and within the quarantined area — after seeing a dramatic rise in the number of presumptive cases since the beginning of February.
The government-ordered lock-down, in the heavily populated northern regions of Italy, quarantines more than one-quarter of that country’s population — about 16 million people — and has been described as “the most aggressive response taken in any region outside China.” The Italian Interior Ministry has declared that anyone found leaving the lock-down regions risks a “fine of up to 206 euros” or up to “three months in prison”.
Italian authorities are reporting a total of 7,375 presumptive cases as of this past weekend, with 366 presumptive deaths. According to my pocket calculator, Italy’s fatality rate from COVID-19 infection appears to be around 5%. That’s considerably better odds than Russian Roulette (16% chance when using a six-shooter…) but worse odds than contracting influenza. (About 0.02% fatality rate, in the case of the swine flu epidemic in 2009.)
Which brings us, perhaps, to the idea of ‘vectors’.
Some contagious diseases in humans are known to be transmitted via animal ‘vectors’. Mosquitoes, for example, are known to transmit malaria, yellow fever and West Nile fever, among other infectious diseases. Ticks serve as a primary vector for Lyme Disease and Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Bats, mice, and other rodents may carry the rabies virus. Fleas can infect humans with bubonic plague.
In other cases, an infectious disease might be contracted by drinking unclean water.
In the case of COVID-19, however, the vectors are our fellow human beings.
As far as we know right now, the only way to contract COVID-19 is by exposure to an infected fellow human, or by careless handling of something touched recently by an infected human. (A doorknob? A light switch? A shopping cart? A restaurant menu? A deck chair next to a geothermal bathing pool?) Given the ‘vector’ for COVID-19, it would appear that — for the time being — the best way to avoid the disease is to stay as far away as possible from other people.
This is not a terribly attractive idea, if you happen to earn your living working in the tourism industry… in a town like Pagosa Springs. At the same time, the idea of working in a tourism-related industry, where you will be exposed to people coming from anywhere and everywhere, might also seem unattractive — for the time being.
According to BBC radio, the city of Dublin has canceled its St. Patrick’s Day Parade. When the capital of Ireland cancels what is described as “the largest parade in the world” — a parade with “tens of thousands of participants” and “hundreds of thousands of onlookers” — you know that someone is taking the COVID-19 situation seriously.
From the BBC:
St Patrick’s Day parades across the Republic of Ireland have all been cancelled over coronavirus, said [Irish Prime Minister] Leo Varadkar…
On Monday, Mr. Varadkar said the Republic would stay in the “containment phase” for as long as possible. But it would move to the delay and mitigation phase in the coming weeks.
The Irish cabinet has agreed to a package of reforms for sick pay, illness benefit and supplementary benefit. They are designed to ensure that employees and the self-employed can abide by medical advice to self-isolate where appropriate, while having their income protected to a greater degree than under the current social welfare system.
The Republic of Ireland (27,000 square miles, population 4.8 million) is currently reporting 21 cases of COVID-19, with one person in serious condition. The government there is giving its populace the same advice as so many other national governments: if you feel symptoms — fever, dry cough, runny nose, sore throat, diarrhea, shortness of breath, body aches — isolate yourself at home. Do not report to a hospital.
The challenge for a tourism-driven town like Pagosa Springs — at the moment — is not COVID-19 itself, but the simple idea that the disease vector is “other humans.” You don’t need to have ‘symptoms’ to decide to isolate yourself at home.
If you don’t have one already, a subscription to Netflix might be just the ticket… instead of a plane ticket. Crack a beer, open a bag of chips, settle on the sofa and wait for the dust to settle.
Unless, of course, you are concerned about debt.
American culture has become heavily dependent upon debt. Private debt, and public debt. A debt-funded family, or business, or government can function effectively, so long as “growth” is picking up the tab for the interest payments. But when things slow down, for whatever reason, the house of cards can come tumbling down… as we saw back in 2007-2008.