There is an old saying that “a camel is horse designed by a committee”! That came to mind as I was reading Bill Hudson’s series on the Dry Gulch water reservoir project. There were two committees involved – the PAWSD and the SJWCD. What could go wrong?
How is it possible to overpay for property in a economically depressed buyers market (2008) for twice what it subsequently appraises for in a recovering market (2015), and as part of the deal give away a valuable asset (gravel) to the seller? That almost defies belief — unless you understand the concept of Groupthink.
Groupthink is defined as “the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility”. It leads to dumb decisions, such as the Dry Gulch reservoir purchase. The textbook Groupthink scenario (the one in which the phenomena was first recognized) was the 1961 Cuban Bay of Pigs debacle.
For those not old enough to remember, the idea of invading Cuba to get rid of Castro was hatched by the CIA in 1960. The plan was for the CIA to secretly train a bunch of Cuban refugees as a paramilitary force to invade Cuba, and foment a revolution among the populace to overthrow Castro. The CIA wizards who conceived it convinced themselves, and the top command of the US military, that their plan was foolproof.
The planners were so enamored with their objective (getting rid of a communist dictator 90 miles from the US) they were blind to the flaws in the plan. It was Groupthink. Anyone who raised tough questions was browbeaten by the group. Flaws were rationalized away. Bureaucratic inertia took over and dissenters kept quiet. At least until the plan was presented to President Eisenhower in late 1960.
Ike knew a thing or two about invading a hostile foreign shore and immediately recognized the plan was a cluster waiting to happen. Not even the top military brass would dare argue with Ike about a military plan, so with tails between their legs, the planners slunk back to their hovels in the bowels of the CIA and Pentagon, where they bided their time. They saw their chance when Kennedy was elected President in 1960.
The CIA spooks knew Kennedy would be sensitive to being accused of “losing Cuba”(the way Truman and the Democrats were blamed for “losing China” a decade earlier) and wouldn’t want to appear “soft on communism”. So they presented the same plan that Eisenhower had rejected.
Kennedy was no Ike when it came to military planning (but then who was). The extent of JFK’s military acumen involved getting his own PT boat sunk from under him by the Japanese in WWII.
So when the collective brains of the CIA, and Pentagon, told Kennedy they had a foolproof plan to get rid of Castro, he was swept up by the Groupthink and swallowed it hook, line and sinker. The invasion at Cuba’s Bay of Pigs went ahead, and the disaster Ike predicted bit JFK on the ass. The Dry Gulch reservoir is the PAWSD/SJWCD Bay of Pigs.
The PAWSD and SJWCD members were seduced by the idea of the reservoir, and more particularly with the prospect of paying for it with the ever increasing population building new homes to generate impact fees. Anyone suggesting a flaw in the plan was ignored. Groupthink!
In addition to the economic flaws in the plan, I can see another potential disaster if the reservoir is built. From what I understand of the plan, the reservoir is northeast of Pagosa on the eastern side of Hwy 160. Water was to be pumped from the San Juan river (on the west side of the highway) uphill to the reservoir where is would be retained behind a dam. Uphill behind a dam being the critical operative terms here.
Originally there was to “64,000 acre-feet” of water retained by the dam. What would happen if the dam breaks? That’s literally tons of water racing downhill, washing away the highway into the river, then heading toward Pagosa Springs! Am I the only one to have mentioned that scenario, or was it just another “flaw” disregarded by committee Groupthink? After all, it’s not like a dam has ever broken and wiped out a small town.
But that’s the past. Here in 2020, purchase of the land is a fait accompli. So what to do next? I have a humble suggestion.
Build affordable housing on the tract! You could build rental housing earmarked for the entire town and county workforce (plus long-term employees of local businesses) for a small fraction of the $357 million dollar projected cost of the reservoir. You could probably build enough housing for less than the cost of the new jail, and unlike the jail you don’t have to feed the residents — plus you can charge them rent!
There is already a county maintenance staff in place to maintain the housing. In fact, you could offer reduced rents to maintenance workers who agreed to handle emergency issues when they occur. Then invite bids from local property managers to administer the rentals.
Turn this lemon into income producing lemonade, and solve your affordable housing shortage in the bargain.
Or am I thinking outside the group?
Gary Beatty lives between Florida and Pagosa Springs. He retired after 30 years as a prosecutor for the State of Florida, has a doctorate in law, is Board Certified in Criminal Trial law by the Florida Supreme Court, and is now a law professor.